The Non-State Update: April 17, 2015

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. Let’s get started. 

Islamic State Uses Drones to Coordinate Fighting in Baiji:

First off from Caleb Weiss at The Long War Journal, a fascinating article on a recently released ISIS video showing their use of drones for reconnaissance. While this isn’t the first time the group has used drones, the sophistication of their operation demonstrates how ISIS is becoming increasingly high-tech. 

ISIS or al-Qaida? An Indictment in Ohio Reveals How Wannabe Jihadists Choose Sides: 

Josh Keating at Slate’s The World blog has a short post on the recent Department of Justice release on a homegrown would-be jihadist’s plot. While he likely trained with Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, it appears that the schism between ISIS and al-Qaida matters less for Western recruits. 

Hezbollah Expects Payday from Iran Deal: 

Money Jihad relays a piece from the Investigative Project on Terrorism about the potential windfall that Hezbollah will receive now that the framework for an Iran deal is in place. While Iran does provide much of Hezbollah’s funds, I’m skeptical that the easing of sanctions on Iran will result in increased financial flows to to the Lebanese group. Hezbollah has become more financially self-sufficient in recent years, and additionally, Iran has more pressing proxy groups to fund. This fear seems overblown. 

US to Remove Cuba From List of State Terrorism Sponsors: 

At Foreign Policy, Elias Groll and David Francis have a piece analyzing the recent action to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism after decades. While this is one more step in the growing rapprochement, there are still significant barriers to better relations between the US and Cuba. The move will be critiqued by Senators Rubio and Menendez, but there is little evidence that Cuba continues to support terrorist groups. In fact, they’ve been an integral host in talks between the FARC and Colombia. 

Sanctioning to Deter: Implications for Cyberspace, Russia, and Beyond: 

Next, an excellent piece by Eric Lorber and Jacquelyn Schneider at War on the Rocks on the recently announced sanctions program focused on countering cyber-attacks. They outline the rationale behind the new sanctions and how sanctions can be used to deter action. Although sanctions are often politically motivated, the ultimate goal is to change behavior, which is much easier to do prior to an action being taken. 

Buhari is the Man to Defeat Boko Haram: 

From John Campbell at Foreign Policy, an optimistic article on Buhari’s chances in Nigeria. While he has a multitude of challenges to overcome, Campbell believes that his military history, commitment to rooting out corruption, and his ethnic and religious background, might be able to make a difference in the fight against Boko Haram. 

Mexican Workers at Canadian Mines are at Constant Threat of Cartel Kidnappings, Killings:

Nathaniel Janowitz and Benjamin Fernandez report on the recent comments by the CEO of a Canandian mining company with operations in Mexico. The CEO stated that his company has a “good relationship” with the cartels in Mexico, although he later walked back this statement. It is unsurprising that the mining company would have some sort of deal with the cartel in order to prevent theft and kidnappings. It is nearly impossible to guarantee the security of mine workers in these conditions. 

Criminal Gang Jailed £10 Million Fake Viagra Scheme: 

Finally, an admittedly humorous article at first glance from OCCRP, as counterfeit Viagra is not generally seen as terribly threatening. When it is made out of acid, brick dust, and road paint, though, is different entirely. It is surprising that this group was able to operate for seven years without detection. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: April 10, 2015

After a two month hiatus, we’re back! Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Do the Urabenos Have a Future Outside Colombia?: 

Leading off, a great piece from Michael Lohmuller at Insight Crime on one of D&TB’s favorite narco-groups. The Urabenos have lost many of their leaders in the past year either to death or capture, but the arrest of members from non-Colombian countries demonstrates the drug trafficking organization’s increasing multinational structure. It remains to be seen if the Urabenos can transform from a banda criminala into a more regionally-based organization. 

Notes on the Conflict in Yemen: Local vs. Transnational Roots of Violence: 

Next up from Political Violence at a Glance, a great post by Thomas Eilers on the false argument that Yemen is a product of proxy wars controlled by regional powers. Although the narrative of Saudi against Iranian influence is convenient, the conflict is more accurately based in local grievances and an unlikely alliance between the Houthis and former President Saleh. 

America Did Hybrid Warfare Too: 

At War on the Rocks, Todd Greentree has an interesting historical comparison between Russia’s current actions in Ukraine and America’s in Nicaragua in the 1980s. In both cases, a superpower used a proxy war as a low-cost alternative to greater provocations. Greentree concludes by noting that hybrid warfare is not blatantly evil just because Putin is using it. It is simply a type of warfare available to states. 

Croatia: Record Heroin Seizure at Serbia Border: 

At OCCRP, news of a massive seizure of heroin at the Croatian-Serbian border. The smugglers were arrested in a German-plated car, likely intending to bring the heroin to lucrative Western European markets. The Balkans remain one of the key global transit points for narcotics trafficking. 

Portrait of an American Jihadist: 

David Francis at Foreign Policy has a fascinating article on the multiple Americans arrested while working to fight for ISIS on American soil. While the US has not suffered an attack from any of these local jihadists, there is certainly the potential for such an attack. Francis argues that ISIS provides these individuals with the aspiration of a higher calling, sometimes pushing them to action from abroad. 

Ansar al Sharia Libya Relaunches Social Media Sites:

From Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal, a post on the recent revival of Ansar al Sharia Libya’s social media accounts. Although a senior level official has defected to ISIS, it appears that Ansar al Sharia has not yet made that decision as a whole. While social media sites have tried to block groups like Ansar al Sharia, these accounts can be useful in tracking their actions. The balance between banning propaganda and gathering intelligence is a fine one. 

Al-Shabaab Crosses the Rubicon: 

Bronwyn Burton has a piece at Foreign Policy on the aftermath of the recent horrifying attack on a Kenyan university by al-Shabaab. Burton notes that the attack appears to have emulated Boko Haram in style and tactics. What is most concerning is the apparent struggle between militant groups to outdo the others in wanton violence. 

Is ISIS’s Messaging More on Point Than al-Qaeda’s for Potential Recruits?: 

Finally, a podcast episode from the Loopcast from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon discusses the propaganda and messaging strategies of ISIS and al-Qaeda with J.M. Berger. Like always, this is a great talk and definitely worth a listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Return of D&TB

After nearly two months of an unexpected hiatus, D&TB is back! In addition to the usual Non-State Update posts on Friday and original articles throughout the week, I hope to bring in some new authors and new kinds of content to the site. I’m excited to be back and I’m ready to start working again on the ever exciting topics of drug trafficking, transnational organized crime, terrorism, and insurgency. If the previous two months are any indication, there's going to be plenty to discuss going forward. 

Like always, feel free to add your comments, thoughts, concerns, or criticism either in the comment area below, by emailing me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or by getting in touch with me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

Thanks for reading, everyone.

The Non-State Update: February 13, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Afghan Taliban Now Smuggle Drugs and Gems Like Mafia: U.N. Report: 

Leading off, an article from Frank Daniel at Reuters on the recent United Nations report on Afghanistan’s criminal insurgency. Broadened funding streams have allowed the Taliban to continue, despite efforts from ISAF and Afghan security forces. Taliban criminal activities now include ruby smuggling, heroin production, and kidnapping for ransom. 

Suspected ISIS Recruiter’s Trial Starts: 

At OCCRP, news that Husein Bosnic, a Bosnian alleged to have been paid money to recruit individuals for ISIS, has begun his trial. Bosnic’s defense is that he simply was preaching his faith, which might find backing in the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The Best- And (Likely) Worst-Case Scenarios for Ukraine’s Peace Deal: 

At Slate, Joshua Keating breaks down the peace deal arranged yesterday after lengthy negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany in Belarus. The deal looks strikingly like the peace deal from 2014, which broke apart nearly immediately. Hopefully it will result in less violence, but the conflict’s roots have not yet been addressed. 

AQAP Seizes Yemeni Military Base in Shabwa: 

Next, Bill Roggio and Oren Adaki at the Long War Journal with news on the AQAP attack in Yemen yesterday morning. The chaos caused by the Houthis is now being used by AQAP to strike seize territory and military posts. This conflict does not appear to have reached a low point as of yet. Yemen is likely to continue to deteriorate in the coming months. 

How Many Fighters Does the Islamic State Really Have?: 

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at War on the Rocks analyzes the multitude of estimations out there on ISIS strength and comes to the sobering conclusion that “its total force is likely to be closer to 100,000 than to 30,000”. While it’s nearly impossible to tackle this question definitively, Gartenstein-Ross’s methodology is excellent. 

Mexican Poppy Production Feeds Growing US Heroin Demand: 

Kyra Gurney at InSight Crime has two pieces this week (the second being “Tracing Heroin Trafficking in New Mexico”) that cover the production and trafficking of heroin from Mexico to the US. While cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking has dropped off, heroin has surged in recent years. 

Is China Making Its Own Terrorism Problem Worse?: 

At Foreign Policy, Justine Drennan outlines the potential backlash that could result from China’s crackdown on its Muslim minority, the Uighurs. Drennan points out that while there are some cases of Uighurs utilizing terrorism as a tactic, China’s repressive tactics may be only adding fuel to the fire in Xinjiang. 

Foreign Recruits are Islamic State’s Cannon Fodder: 

At BloombergView, Eli Lake describes ISIS’s typical use of new foreign recruits as frontline fighters and suicide bombers. While this is ostensibly done for counterintelligence purposes, it will likely result in less enthusiastic volunteers. Foreign fighters probably don’t want to die immediately after joining their new caliphate.  

Big Weed: 

Finally, a great episode of the Planet Money podcast with Steven Henn and David Kestenbaum, detailing the difficulties that legal marijuana shops have in obtaining banking services. While this is slowly changing, banks still have concerns providing their services to such potential risky businesses. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: February 6, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Jury Takes Less than Four Hours to Convict Ross Ulbricht of Running Silk Road: Leading off, Samuel Oakford at Vice News with the result of the Silk Road trial. Ulbricht aka Dread Pirate Roberts has been convicted, likely to face life in jail. With the overwhelming evidence against Ulbricht, this result is unsurprising. 

 Obama Warns Against Exaggerating the Islamic State Threat: 

Next, Foreign Policy’s Kate Brannen with commentary on a recent Fareed Zakaria interview with President Obama. Obama noted that their lack of governance will ultimately end the organization and urged that we continue to view the situation realistically, as ISIS is not an existential threat to the US. 

DIA Head Warns al Qaeda in Syria May Gain Ground in 2015: 

At the Long War, however, Thomas Jocelyn analyzes the DIA director’s recent congressional testimony in which LTG Stewart warned about the complexity of the current security crises. Stewart notes the stalemated situation in Afghanistan, the current division between ISIS and al-Qaeda, and the current standing of the air campaign against ISIS. 

The “Seal of Muhammad” Flag: 

The Line of Steel blog’s Caleb Weiss posted this explanatory guide earlier this week on the ubiquitous ISIS flag. Weiss notes the historical context of the flag, then analyzes other groups with similar flags. Just because two jihadist groups have the same black flag does not mean that they’re allied. 

The US Takes Aim at Dawood Ibrahim’s Brother: 

Money Jihad has a short piece on the recent Treasury action against D-Company assets and individuals, notably Dawood Ibrahim’s brother Anis Ibrahim. The sanctions are even more notable this week after Anis’s arrest. Despite the international pressure, Dawood effectively lives openly in Pakistan. 

How Iraq Subsidizes the Islamic State: 

Aki Peritz at Overt Action just posted a piece on how Iraqi civil servants continue to work  in ISIS-controlled territory and continue to receive funds from the Iraqi central government. Peritz analyzes why Iraq allows this to continue and how this process diverts funds to ISIS, which especially needs the income while the price of oil remains low. 

Narco-Submarines: 

Published at Ft. Leavenworth and edited by Byron Ramirez and Robert J. Bunker, with support from Small Wars Journal’s El Centro and InSight Crime, a giant pdf covering everything related to the use of submarines by drug cartels. The technology used by the cartels is astounding. 

Bank Crackdowns Threaten Remittances to Somalia:

Jamila Trindle at Foreign Policy with an article on the continued closure of accounts related to remittances and money services to Somalia. The fear of funding terrorist groups like al-Shabaab, and the related fear of non-compliance fines, has led banks to avoid the country at all costs. While the fears are understandable, allowing an entire country to go unbanked is not the appropriate response. 

Colombia Narcos Prefer Trafficking Coca Base, Not Cocaine: 

A surprising development in the Colombian narcotics market, as reported at InSight Crime by Loren Risenfeld and Elyssa Pachico. Colombian cartels are now exporting their product as an unfinished product. This means that their profit is significantly diminished, but it limits their financial exposure if a shipment is interdicted. The article also notes that Colombian cartels are have a difficult time sourcing the precursor chemicals necessary to finalize their product. 

Accused Drug Lord Extradited to Germany: 

A short take at OCCRP on the extradition of Safet Kalic, a Montenegrin drug trafficker with ties to Darko Saric’s organization. There are complications with the Interpol arrest warrant between Montenegro and Germany, but it seems likely that Montenegro will request his extradition. 

Nigeria and Boko Haram: 

Finally, another great podcast episode from the Loopcast, this time on Boko Haram. Chelsea Daymon hosts Hilary Matfess for an in-depth discussion on the insurgency. Like always, it’s a great listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: January 30, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and videos from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

How the Houthis Did It:

Leading off this week, an article from Foreign Policy by Laura Kasinof on where last week’s events in Yemen came from. She outlines the gradual buildup and expansion of the Houthi movement over the preceding four years. The fractured political system in Yemen following the Arab Spring of 2011 provided limited resistance against the Houthis, culminating in their takeover of Sanaa and the Presidential palace. 

Boko Haram’s Resiliency Spells Trouble for West Africa: 

At Small Wars Journal, Jeff Moore writes on Boko Haram and Nigeria’s attempt at a COIN-based strategy. Although the Nigerian conflict has received little press coverage, it’s one of the largest and most violent insurgencies in the world, with designs on a larger swathe of territory than just northern Nigeria. Regional partners in west Africa need to cooperate now before Boko Haram spreads further. 

Islamic State Appoints Leaders of ‘Khorasan Province’, Issues Veiled Threat to Afghan Taliban: 

More information on the ISIS-affiliated group in Afghanistan, once part of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), from the Long War Journal. The former TTP group pledged their support to ISIS last week, and now ISIS has used the organization to implicitly threaten the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. 

The Irrelevance of Traditional Warfare?:

At War on the Rocks, LTG David Barno and Dr. Nora Bensahel begin their new column by examining the declining necessity of traditional warfare and the rise of asymmetric conflict. They argue that although the US will continue to need conventional power to deter adversarial states, we need to additionally retool our conception of warfare to include indirect methods like cyber. 

Is this Scandal Proof that Venezuela Has Finally Become a Narco-State?:

Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez has a piece at Foreign Policy that looks at the recent revelations from a defected Venezuelan official. The official confirms long held suspicions that the Venezuelan military ran drug trafficking operation in the country, known as the Soles Cartel for the suns on the higher ranking officers’ uniforms. This development is not terribly surprising (D&TB covered this over the summer here), but it is fascinating to get some confirmation of the military’s involvement in drug trafficking. 

Sinaloa Cartel Informants Receive Reduced Prison Sentence in Chicago:

At InSight Crime, David Gagne has an article on the limited jail sentences of two Sinaloa lieutenants after they divulged a massive amount of information on the Sinaloa Cartel’s operations. The brothers’ knowledge of the organization was enough to lead to the indictment of 62 Sinaloa members, including the boss, Joaqin “Chapo” Guzman. Although they will still serve 14 years in jail for their crimes, their help in was clearly invaluable. 

The World In-Between: Mafia Capitale Blurs the Lines of Organized Crime: 

At the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, Antonio de Bonis has an interesting piece on the recent discovery of a Mafia Capitale, which sought to operate as a middleman between the licit world and the illicit underworld. With strong ties to Italian upper society, the Mafia Capitale controlled much of the white collar crime in Italy. 

The Counterfeiting Missionary and the Fake Pittsburgh Playboy: 

This story is nearly unbelievable. There have been many bizarre links on these Friday posts in the past, but this might be the strangest one of them all. Justin Rohrlich traces counterfeit US currency from a Pittsburgh fraudster to the son of missionaries who counterfeited the bills in Uganda. This story is absolutely fascinating. 

Turkey Foreign Fighters in Ogaden: 

Finally, a new Loopcast episode from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon talks to OSMahmood and North Caucasus Caucus on Turkish foreign fighters in Ogaden, Somalia during the 1990s. Their discussion sheds some interesting insights into the current foreign fighter situation in Syria and Iraq. Definitely worth a listen this weekend.  

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: January 23, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. It’s been another busy week following non-state actors, but the weekend is finally here. Below is a list of some of the best articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Roberto Saviano: My Life Under Armed Guard: 

First off, from The Guardian and Roberto Saviano, an excellent biographical piece on the author’s infamy among the Camorra, the Neapolitan organized crime group. After publishing Gamorrah and calling out the Camorra’s practices, they threatened his life. He continues to live under guard and among threats. An absolutely brave man, and a great author as well. 

Ex-Gitmo Detainee Leads Contingent of Islamic State Fighters in Afghanistan: 

At the Long War Journal, Thomas Joscelyn with a piece on a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner who returned to the Taliban after his release. When he lost a power struggle in the organization, he switched allegiance to ISIS and brought his followers along. The competition between jihadists groups continues, even in al-Qaeda’s backyard. 

Besting Boko Haram: 

Next, Alice Hunt Friend at War on the Rocks with an article on the political mistakes made by the Nigerian government in combatting Boko Haram and a way forward in fighting the organization. Assuming that Goodluck Jonathan is reelected next month, he will have his work cut out for him in reconciling the northern and southern parts of Nigeria to unite against Boko Haram. 

Can Argentina Find Justice Without Alberto Nisman?: 

At Foreign Policy, Matthew Levitt analyzes the supposed suicide of Special Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who had been investigating Iranian complicity in the 1994 Buenos Aires bombing. He was expect to appear the day after his death to demonstrate new evidence that the Argentinian government was covering up certain details of the case. With his “suicide”, even more questions are left unanswered. 

Kelmendi Pleads Not Guilty as Trial Opens in Prishtina: 

At OCCRP and via Balkans Insight, Una Hajdari reports on the beginning of Naser Kelmendi’s trial in Kosovo. Kelmendi, something of a personal project here at D&TB (here and here), is on trial for murder, narcotics trafficking, and organized crime. Because neighboring states continue to refuse to recognize Kosovo as a sovereign country, though, the trial has many complications to progress through. More on this here at D&TB next week.

Boko Haram Targets India for Drug Dealing Income: 

At Money Jihad, a post on the Nigerian insurgency Boko Haram’s plans to traffic in narcotics in India to support their fight. To this end, Boko Haram has allegedly aligned with D-Company boss Dawood Ibrahim. This seems so incredible as to be unbelievable, but if there’s any truth in this, it would be a stunning development. 

Playing a Double Game in the Fight Against AQAP: 

At Foreign Policy, Evan Hill and Laura Kasinof with a long read on the Yemeni government’s ties with AQAP. In light of yesterday’s events in Sanaa, this is required reading to understand the dynamics of the country. 

Drone Carrying Three Kilos of Meth Crashes in Tijuana: 

Andrea Noel at Vice News with a bizarre report on a drone crash in Tijuana earlier this week. The drone was downed after it proved unable to handle the 6.5 pounds of methamphetamine attached to it. Concerns about drone-facilitated drug trafficking are not new, but it is surprising to see such a blatant use of the new technology. 

Confusing Revolution with Terrorism:

An interesting piece at Small Wars Journal by Eric C. Anderson on the fallacy of calling ISIS terrorists. Because their movement is so much more than simple terrorism, the label does not make sense. This complicates the problem and eliminates some of our preferred solutions, but it reflects reality more effectively. Anderson’s article also explains some of the points I tried to make a few months back, although in a much more eloquent fashion than my take. 

2000 Illegal Weapons Cross US-Mexico Border Per Day-Report: 

From InSight Crime’s David Gagne, commentary on a recent report put out by the Mexican government’s research wing on the flow of illegal weapons. The American appetite for narcotics creates the market, but our lax gun laws are exacerbating it the war. Drugs go north, guns head south. 

When Money is a Weapon: How the Treasury Got Into the Spy Game: 

And finally at Bloomberg, Terry Atlas and Andrew Mayeda have a great piece on the rise of the Treasury Department’s stature in the national security community, mainly due to its role in drugs and thugs topics. Sanctioning and tracking terrorists, narcotics cartels, and weapons traffickers has become much more in vogue in the security establishment as of late.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.

The Non-State Update: January 16, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. It’s been another busy week in the non-state actor field, but Friday is finally here. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Inspired, Networked and Directed-The Muddled Jihad of ISIS and Al Qaeda Post-Hebdo: First off, by Clint Watts at War on the Rocks, an analytical take on the state of the jihad movement at large. The attack last week in Paris was somehow committed by both and neither AQAP and ISIS, which exemplifies the confusing counter-terror environment that currently exists. Both groups appear to be competing and collaborating simultaneously, making the task of preventing attacks even more complicated. 

AQIM Attacks Central Mali: Caleb Weiss at the Line of Steel has a piece and an accompanying map on the recent AQIM attacks in central Mali. Despite the presence of French counterterrorism troops, AQIM has continued to increase its footprint in Mali. 

What Does Guerrilla Ceasefire Mean for Organized Crime in Colombia?: At InSight Crime, David Gagne has an interesting piece on how FARC’s recent unilateral ceasefire (discussed at D&TB here) will affect organized crime in Colombia. Gagne speculates that the ceasefire is being used to shift resources away from the insurgency and towards drug trafficking. The coming year in Colombia will be fascinating to watch unfold.

All the Intel You Need is Already in Cable Traffic: At Overt Action Blog, Marshall Erwin notes again the uncomfortable position that intelligence is in when trying to prevent terrorist attacks. Collection is not the problem; sifting through the data in time is. It isn’t as easy as simply “connecting the dots”. 

2011: France May Have Paid AQAP $12m in Ransom: At Money Jihad, a piece on the clandestine French ransom paid in order to free three captured charity workers in Yemen back in 2011. We need to acknowledge that governments that pay these ransoms are providing funds to jihadist groups and creating a market for hostages.

This is Not Your Father’s Hezbollah: Next, a great piece at Foreign Policy by Susannah George. She reports on surprisingly in-depth conversations with Hezbollah members currently fighting against Syrian rebel groups, mainly Jabhat al Nusra. Although the organization has increased in size, there are concerns that the command and control is breaking down, mainly due to increased financial costs. How Hezbollah emerges from the Syrian Civil War will play heavily on Lebanon’s future. 

Boko Haram Continues to Slaughter Nigerians: At the Long War Journal, Laura Grossman has a post and map of the current Boko Haram offensive. In 2015 alone, thousands have been killed as the militant group has overrun villages and military bases alike. Cameroon had begun bombing Boko Haram areas earlier this year, but more needs to be done to limit the organization’s violence. 

“Carder” Pleads Not Guilty: At OCCRP, an interesting, if underreported, piece of news on an ongoing cybercrime trial. Jordan Georgievski, a Macedonian, has been charged with being part of a cybercrime organization that trafficked in stolen credit cards. The group has stolen roughly $50 million. 

ISIS and al-Qaida are Enemies. How Can They Both Have Been Involved in the Paris Attacks?: At Slate’s The World blog, Joshua Keating tackles the complicated history of the Paris attackers and how the two dominant jihadist groups were tangentially involved. Although the two groups are competing for primacy in the jihadist propaganda space, their supporters view the goal as the same. 

Ross Ulbricht Admits to Founding Silk Road-But Claims that He’s Not ‘Dread Pirate Roberts’: Finally, at Vice News, Samuel Oakford has been covering the Silk Road trial throughout the week. In this piece, he reports that Ulbricht created the site as a libertarian experiment, but sold it after it became too big for him to manage. The trial is expected to continue for another few weeks, but it does not seem likely that Ulbricht will be acquitted. Either way, Ulbricht’s creation has left a large mark on narcotics trafficking systems, one that won’t go away just from his incarceration. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Legacy of the Dread Pirate Roberts and Silk Road

Earlier this week, the trial of Ross Ulbricht aka Dread Pirate Roberts began in New York. Ulbricht is alleged to have been the founder and director of Silk Road, a no-rules marketplace located in one of the darker corners of the Internet. Ulbricht has entered a not guilty plea, arguing that although he created Silk Road, he is not the individual associated with the Dread Pirate Robert profile. For any that have seen the classic film The Princess Bride, from which the Dread Pirates Robert name comes, this is all the more appropriate. But although Ulbricht argues for a case of mistaken identity, there are serious ramifications that stem from his creation. 

The Silk Road was created initially as a libertarian experiment in which products could be bought and sold with Bitcoin serving as the currency. At some point, whether under Ulbricht’s guidance or the elusive “other” Dread Pirate Roberts, it became a clearinghouse for mainly illegal drugs, but also other illicit items like weapons, falsified  documents, and stolen credit cards. The Silk Road site was truly innovative in the field of narcotics trafficking. It provide an anonymous and encrypted market for buyers and sellers to meet, as well utilize the anonymous Bitcoin currency to exchange products. But the major innovation, as well as the main source of income for the Silk Road, was its use of escrow to guarantee transactions. The most significant roadblock in the way of illicit virtual exchanges is the lack of trust between buyer and seller, and the lag time between a purchase and delivery. By holding the Bitcoins in escrow, Silk Road overcame the market’s hesitancy of ordering illicit products online. 

Although the trial has multiple other controversies, including internet anonymity and the potentially illegal actions by federal officers that led to Ulbricht’s arrest, it is important to note that the Silk Road’s style of illicit marketplace has not died out. Although Silk Road was taken down by the FBI after Ulbricht’s arrest in 2013, a Silk Road 2.0, run by former admins to the original, resurfaced after less than a month. A multitude of other, similar sites have cropped up in the intervening years, only to be taken down by the FBI. But the use of an illicit and anonymous marketplace continues unabated in sites like Agora and Evolution.

It is unlikely that the Silk Road-like sites will become the dominant route for drug trafficking in the US, as most individuals don’t have the computer savvy to navigate TOR or invest in Bitcoins. But it is equally unlikely that the anonymous marketplace will go away, either. Whether Ulbricht is convicted or not, his legacy is secure in the proliferation of Silk Road-style sties. It remains to be seen how impactful this is in the field of drug trafficking. 

The Non-State Update: January 9, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

US ‘Kingpin’ Designation Exposes Sinaloa Cartel Head in Central America: First of from InSight Crime, a piece by Steven Dudley on the recent sanctions designation of Cesar Gastelum Serrano and his associates under the Kingpin Act. As a major affiliate of the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico, Serrano aka La Señora and the rest of his gang supports the distribution of cocaine from Colombia, through Honduras and north to Mexico and the US. In recent months, his network has begun to fall apart. The financial designation will aid this process.

Boko Haram Overruns Multinational Joint Task Force Base: From the Long War Journal’s Bill Roggio, a report on the recent attack by Boko Haram militants against a base manned by Nigerian, Nigerien, and Chadian soldiers. Despite increased attention and resources on Boko Haram, they continue to harass soldiers and civilians in the northern Nigeria. 

Will Anyone Claim Credit for the Charlie Hedbo Attack?: At Slate’s The World blog, Joshua Keating has a post on the horrific attacks in Paris earlier this week. Keating breaks down the likely groups that will claim credit and the frequency in which terrorist groups immediately come out after successful attacks. If it is AQ, they will likely claim the attack as their own in order to strike a propaganda blow against their competitor, ISIS. 

How Not to Respond to the Charlie Hedbo Attacks: Barbara F. Walter at Political Violence @ a Glance has a short piece on the way that the West should act after the attacks in Paris earlier this week. Although some may immediately self-censor, Walter argues that we should not stop publishing, as this is exactly what the attackers had hoped to cause. 

Insurance Companies in the Cross-Hairs of Terror Funding Crackdown: Next, Jamila Trindle at Foreign Policy with a post on a debated bill in the UK House of Commons that would prevent individuals or insurance companies from paying ransom to terrorists. Although insurance companies claim that their policies don’t fund terrorist groups, British legislators are likely to continue considering the new law. 

Meth is Flooding California-And You Can Blame Mexican Cartels: At Vice News, Meredith Hoffman has an article on the recent surge of Mexican meth arriving in Los Angeles, then being shipped across the country. Not only is the new meth cheaper, but also significantly purer. This increase of foreign meth is likely due to a crackdown on precursor chemicals in the US in 2006. 

Canada Warns of Crowd-Funded Terrorism: Money Jihad has an interesting piece on comments from a Canadian intelligence official speaking on the rise of crowd-funding as a sharia-compliant way to raise terrorism finances. Most significantly, this is being used by would-be jihadists to acquire enough cash to travel to Iraq or Syria. Better regulation is needed to limit this effect. 

Countering 21st Century Threats: The Need for Increased Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental and Multinational (JIIM) Approach to Irregular Warfare: At Small Wars Journal, a great article on the way the US government and its allies should approach irregular and unconventional warfare. As the US government continues to limit the focus towards counter-insurgency, the article’s recommendations are more necessary than ever. We will fight an insurgency in the future; whether we remember how to do so is our own choice. 

What Comes After the Islamic State is Defeated?: At Foreign Policy, Gopal Ratnam with a post on what the US should expect as an endgame for the ISIS campaign. Ratnam’s proposal for a UN-peacekeeping force is interesting, but much ambiguity still remains. There are likely still years ahead of us before there is a peace to be kept. But planning for this future now is a useful exercise. 

The Islamic State’s Irregulars: Finally, a podcast episode to break up your Non-State Update reading. The Loopcast has another great episode, this time talking with J.M Berger about his recent article on Foreign Policy. After the attack in Paris this week, a discussion on lone wolf terrorists is surprisingly poignant. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: January 2, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Happy New Year, everyone! Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

The Pentagon Still Doesn’t Know How to Fight Jihadists on the Battlefield of Ideas: First off, Aki Peritz at Overt Action has an article on the US’s inability to understand and compete with jihadist ideology, despite over a decade of experience in the field. If we really haven’t learned any lessons on this topic over the preceding years, this should be a major concern for counter-terrorism practitioners. 

Around an Invisible Leader, Taliban Power Shifts: At The New York Times, Matthew Rosenberg with a piece on the changing leadership dynamic in the Taliban, as Mullah Omar becomes increasingly reclusive and isolated. Little is known about Omar, but he continues to organize one of the most successful and long-running insurgencies. If this dynamic is changing, it could cause a huge shift in the Afghan conflict. 

Is America’s Longest War Really Over?: At Slate’s The World Blog, Joshua Keating has a post on the official end of the War in Afghanistan. Although the combat portion of the war is now over, that does not mean that traditional combat is finished. Like in Iraq, US soldiers will remain in country. Although we’ve declared the war over, the fighting will continue. 

Latin America Organized Crime: What to Expect in 2015: Jeremy McDermott has an interesting piece at InSight Crime with some predictions for the next year. The seven Latin American countries highlighted all have serious concerns with organized crime. Hopefully, 2015 is the year in which some of these negative trends reverse. 

Insuring Against Terrorism, Without the Training Wheels: At Foreign Policy, Jamila Trindle reports on the end of the federal terrorism risk insurance program. Without the federal backing, the insurance market has no governmental backstop in the event of a terrorist attack. Although the program has never been used, it did provide a level of security for insurance companies. 

Jihadists Continue to Advertise Training Camps in Iraq and Syria: At the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss have an article and a detailed map on the locations of jihadist training camps. The 64 identified camps are roughly split between ISIS and al-Nusrah Front and are used frequently in social media propaganda by the two organizations. 

Devils Duo: FARC and al Qaeda: At Money Jihad, a short post on news that FARC and al-Qaeda’s North African group (AQIM) have collaborated in smuggling operations, with terrorists providing protection for narcotics shipments. The nexus between drug cartels and terrorist groups is concerning; this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

Cameroon Launches First Airstrikes Against Boko Haram: Finally, a post from FP’s Passport blog by Sibohan O’Grady on news that Cameroon has attacked a Boko Haram outpost in response to Boko Haram’s cross-border operations. Although Cameroon’s involvement is encouraging, all countries in the region need to cooperate to rid Nigeria of the insurgency. Nigerian security should matter for all of its neighbors. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.