D&TB’s Thug of the Year Award

As we near the end of 2014, many columnists are publishing articles that attempt to recap the previous twelve months and review the major world events of the year. Here at Drugs & Thugs Blog, we’ll do things a little differently. With a nod to OCCRP’s satirical Person of the Year award, I proudly present the first annual Thug of the Year award. 

Drugs & Thugs Blog was established as a forum for commentary and analysis on the topics of terrorism, narcotics trafficking, organized crime, and insurgency. In that vein, the Thug of the Year award will go to the individual or organization who’s actions in these fields had the largest negative impact on the global stage. Although much of the discussion here at D&TB is on non-state actors, this award will not discriminate against state actors. Established and internationally recognized governments can be thugs as well.

This year, by all measures, has been surprisingly and horrifically violent. Between new and continuing conflicts in the Middle East, unrest in Eastern Europe, insurgencies in Africa, drug cartel violence in Mexico, and terrorism in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, there is no shortage of awful human beings that can be categorized as international security thugs. But only the worst of the worst can be called the Thug of the Year. Which individual caused death, destruction, and international strife in the most horrific and reprehensible way this year? 

And now, without further ado, the finalists for the 2014 Thug of the Year. Admittedly, it’s  a packed crowd, and there are many qualified candidates that didn’t make the cut. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his support of the Ukrainian separatists and the annexation of Crimea. Because of his role in instigating, prolonging, and intensifying the conflict, nearly 5,000 Ukrainians have been killed and nearly 500,000 have been forced to flee their homes. All the while, Putin has blatantly lied to the international community about his role in the war. 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, for the continuation of the Syrian Civil War. Since the beginning of the war in 2011, al-Assad has been responsible for 200,000 deaths, at least 60,000 of which occured in 2014 alone. Syrian governmental forces have used chemical weapons and deadly barrel bombs on civilians and targeted doctors providing much-needed health care. 

Pakistani Taliban (TTP) leader Maulana Fazlullah, for the Peshawar school massacre, among other attacks. The Peshawar attack killed nearly 150 individuals, almost all of them students. In addition to other more traditional terrorist attacks, the Pakistan Taliban attempted to kill Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai in 2012. The Peshawar massacre was so horrifying that even the Afghan Taliban noted their disgust of the TTP’s actions. 

Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, for the continued insurgency in Nigeria and the abduction of the 276 girls from Chibok. In 2014 alone, the group has accounted for at least 2,000 civilian deaths, either through traditional military strikes or terrorist attacks. 

All of these individuals, as well as others not listed above, have committed unconscionable acts this year and ruined lives, families, and countries. The fact that they are only finalists and not the winners does not diminish the unbelievable suffering that they have caused. Make no mistake: all of these individuals are awful human beings. 

Although it was a close race, the D&TB Thug of the Year “award” goes to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The head of the organizational descendent of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s brutal al-Qaeda in Iraq faction, al-Baghdadi has directed the ISIS takeover of Mosul and Fallujah this year. In addition to brutally ruling the ISIS-claimed area in eastern Syria and western Iraq, ISIS has enacted a campaign of genocide against the Yazidi people, committed atrocities against Shia prisoners, beheaded multiple western journalists and aid workers, and killed thousands of Iraqi civilians. Despite the US-led coalition bombing campaign begun in September, al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State continues to operate across a vast swath of Syria and Iraq with relative impunity. 

Congratulations, al-Baghdadi. You’re the worst person in the world. 

Colombia and the FARC: Peace in 2015?

Over this year of continued upheaval across the world, it has been difficult to find a truly hopeful story in the usual Drugs and Thugs fields. But the Colombian peace process with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) might be one of the few positive events from 2014. There are still a multitude of ways that peace might not come to fruition, but something unique in the forty-year conflict is happening right now in Colombia. 

Just a few months ago, the peace talks appeared to be in serious jeopardy. In mid-November, the FARC captured Colombian General Alzate, which led to a pause in negotiations at the neutral site of Havana, Cuba. The FARC had released their hostages at the beginning of the negotiation process, which made Alzate’s capture all the more surprising. But once it became clear that the Colombian government would not continue peace talks until Alzate’s release, the FARC promptly returned the general just two weeks after his capture. This pattern of aggressive action, followed by a show of good faith appears to be a FARC standard. Earlier this month, the FARC attacked a Colombian army patrol, killing five and capturing one. Immediately after the attack, the organization announced a unilateral and indefinite ceasefire. The Colombian government refused to accept the terms of their ceasefire, but appreciated the gesture as a show of the FARC’s intent. The FARC traditionally has announced Christmas ceasefires, but the fact that this one is indefinite is certainly encouraging, despite the attack preceding the truce. 

Just yesterday, the FARC released the prisoner taken in the attack last week, calling it “another gesture of peace.” Additionally, the FARC announced that they hope to reach a peace deal in the coming year. While these shows of good faith appear to be genuine, it is questionable that they continue to take prisoners and attack military patrols. There are two likely explanations. Either the organization is trying to maintain leverage in the negotiation process, or there are factions in the FARC that are trying to spoil the talks. Although both are common in negotiations with terrorist or insurgent groups, the second explanation is much more concerning. The FARC is broken up into geographical blocks and fronts, all in a hierarchical command structure. But according to InSight Crime, “the geography and size of Colombia has made it nearly impossible for the central command, known as the Secretariat, to exercise control over the whole organization.” Many of these fronts have deep ties in narcotics trafficking, which has been one of the most controversial issues in the peace negotiations. If a rogue front wanted to maintain the status quo, a spoiler attack would be an obvious route to take. Although the FARC negotiators are speaking for the entire organization in Havana, breakaway factions could have negative implications for peace in Colombia. For the moment, this concern is entirely speculative, but it could explain the pattern of FARC actions in the previous two months. 

Assuming a peace deal is reached in 2015, the decentralized nature of the FARC will continue to be concerning for Colombian security forces. Much like the FARC’s former right-wing paramilitary foe, the AUC (United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia), FARC fronts could claim demobilization, but then continue with their drug trafficking operations. The AUC demobilization resulted in the rise of the Bacrim (short for criminal band) organizations, most notably Los Urabenos. If some FARC fronts follow the same path, the political insurgency could end, only to be replaced by a multiplicity of drug trafficking criminal organizations. Colombia would likely take this bargain, as ending the decades-long insurgency is their overarching goal. But the mistakes made with AUC demobilization must be avoided in a potential peace agreement with the FARC. 

There are still many hurdles in the way of the Colombian negotiations and demobilization, but recent actions by the FARC are certainly positive. In light of this turbulent year in the field of international security, some good news is a welcome development. Here’s hoping for peace in Colombia in 2015. 

The Non-State Update: December 26, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. We here at D&TB hope that you have been enjoying this holiday season. If you need some articles on non-state actors to get you through the weekend, though, we’re here to oblige. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis pieces from the week, just in time for the weekend break. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Is the UN Sure it Wants Mexican Soldiers Keeping the Peace?: First off, an article from Ioan Grillo at Global Post on the recent decision to use Mexican military as international peacekeepers. Because of their role in human rights abuses during the Mexican drug war over the past decade, there are concerns with their deployment abroad. 

The US-led Push to Bankrupt the Islamic State Isn’t Working: From Jamila Trindle at Foreign Policy, a report on the FATF’s (Financial Action Task Force) investigation on ISIS finances. Although ISIS oil income has been diminished by airstrikes over the past few months, their more organized crime-like activities remain difficult to combat with traditional financial tools. 

After Peshawar, Expect Business as Usual in Pakistan: At War on the Rocks, an article by C. Christine Fair on the implications for Pakistani intelligence after the Peshawar massacre earlier this month. Pakistan may be committed to destroying the TTP, but their continued reliance on Laskar-e-Taiba and other Islamist organizations is contradictory at best. This is a great article. Fair even works the phrase “scrotal fortitude” into the discussion. 

Islamic State in the Sinai: At the Line of Steel blog, a detailed piece by Caleb Weiss on the Wilayat Sinai and its role in ISIS. Although the scope of Wilayat Sinai is limited, it should be concerning, especially if other groups jihadist groups pledge their support to ISIS. This could be the beginning of a sea change in allegiance from al-Qaeda to ISIS for local jihadist groups. 

Colombia May be on the Verge of Peace: At Slate’s The World blog, Juliana Jimenez Jaramillo has an article on the recent FARC unilateral ceasefire and what it means for the conflict in Colombia. Although there are many obstacles to overcome, the ceasefire could be indicative of an approaching peace in the country for the first time in decades. 

Montenegro: US Indicts 3 For Selling Guns to Colombian Rebels: From OCCRP’s news feed, a report on the recent indictment of two Romanians and a former Italian parliamentarian on charges of selling heavy arms to the FARC. The individuals made the deal with undercover US agents, but still demonstrates the global sweep of arms trafficking. 

Yemen’s Houthi Takeover: At the Middle East Institute, April Longley Alley has a great piece on the Houthi movement and its role in the Yemeni political process. Yemen has occupied an odd place in the years following the Arab Spring of 2011, as it has been a battleground between the Houthis, AQAP, and the post-Saleh government. Yemen is easily the most interesting, but least reported on story of the year, and Alley’s article is excellent. 

SIMI Takes Page from al-Qaeda Financial Playbook: From Money Jihad, a short post on the Student Islamic Movement of India’s use of an old al-Qaeda handbook on financial tactics. Although certain topics might still be relevant, it is surprisingly that a handbook written over a decade ago could be useful in today’s financial system. 

Boko Haram Fighters Storm Nigerian Village, Kidnap Over 100 Women and Children: Laura Grossman at The Long War Journal has a news report on developments with Boko Haram in Nigeria. After a raid in Gumsuri, the insurgent group appears to have taken many individuals, despite a local defense armed with machine guns. Although Boko Haram has been mentioned less frequently in major news services since the Chibok kidnappings earlier this year, they remain a concern for Nigerian and broader African security. 

Terrorist Financing and the Islamic State: And finally, a podcast worth downloading. The Loopcast had Matthew Levitt on last week to discuss ISIS financing, as well as the policy tools available to counter it. Money matters, and Levitt clearly outlines the major issues that are involved in financing ISIS.  

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: December 19, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. It’s been one hell of a week in foreign policy between the horrific Peshawar massacre, the American-Cuban rapprochement, the Russian ruble collapse, and North Korea threatening movie theaters. Among all of those issues, there has been plenty of drugs and thugs news, though. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week, just in time for the weekend break. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

How Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel Fed US Heroin Market: First off, via InSight Crime, a translated article from El Universal by Alejandra S. Inzunza and Jose Luis Pardo on the US heroin market. Although 90% of the global heroin supply comes from Afghanistan, the majority of the US supply comes from Mexico and is trafficked by Mexican drug cartels. At the top of this market is the Sinaloa Cartel, especially in its distribution hub, New York. 

Obama’s Strategy for Defeating ISIS is the Only Viable Option. It Can Work: Next, Joseph Becker at the Small Wars Journal with a piece on the Administration’s much attacked policy on ISIS. Becker examines the issue from the political and military angles. This article excellently analyzes the major issues with US involvement in Iraq and Syria going forward. 

Catch and Release in the Land of Two Rivers: Craig Whiteside at War on the Rocks has a great piece on the rise of ISIS, most importantly focused on the role that US prisons in Iraq played in the organization’s development. History matters. 

Has Support for Colombia’s Peace Talks Finally Failed?: At Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government blog, Jose R. Cardenas has an interesting piece on the continuing Colombia-FARC peace talks. Major considerations still remain, but this is a huge issue to follow next year in the fields of insurgency and narcotics trafficking. 

Taliban Attacks in Afghanistan Surge as Coalition Ends Combat Mission: Next, Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal has a piece on the increased frequency of Taliban attacks in recent months. The Afghan security forces continue to take high losses as Taliban control spreads into new provinces. 

Cutting Off the Money: At the Line of Steel blog, a post on a potentially major change in US policy towards Iraq and Syria. The US might have cut off support for northern rebel groups, although much is unclear. In the fight against ISIS and the Syrian regime, facts become difficult to verify, but this could be a major development. 

Afghanistan: The Making of a Narco State: From Matthieu Aikins at Rolling Stone, a long read on heroin trafficking in Afghanistan. This article accurately demonstrates the fascinating history of the Afghan poppy market and the current distribution of trafficking power. The photos are truly amazing, as well.

Bosnia: Eight Held Over Drug Smuggling in Operation Oscar: At OCCRP, news that a recent police raid has resulted in the arrests of eight drug traffickers. Most encouragingly, the raid occurred with cooperation between Bosnian and Serbian authorities. This is a good sign for Balkan security.

FinCEN Pooh-Poohs Knowing Your Customer: Money Jihad’s got an interesting commentary piece on a recent FinCEN announcement on money service businesses (MSBs). FinCEN has encouraged banks to continue business with MSBs, in light of industry fears of regulatory crackdown on hawala services. Money Jihad points out the major concerns with this announcement, but D&TB does not view this as a significant change in the counter-terrorism financing framework. Regardless, it is an interesting article. 

Hello, I’m Calling From La Mafia: Finally, a podcast episode from NPR’s Planet Money on Honduran gangs and their extortion of local businesses. Fascinating stuff, and surprisingly great access with MS-13 gangs in Honduras. It’s definitely worth a listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

Massacre in Peshawar: Can Public Condemnation End a Terrorist Campaign?

Yesterday, the Tehrik-i-Taliban, also known as the Pakistani Taliban or the TTP, brutally massacred students and teachers at a school in Peshawar, Pakistan. Seven TTP members, armed with weapons and explosives vests, entered Peshawar’s Army Public School facility and murdered at least 132 students and nine staff members. Pakistani special forces eventually killed the TTP terrorists and ended the siege late in the day, but the horrific damage had already been done. 

The TTP claims that the attack on the Army Public School was in retribution for the ongoing Zarb-e-Azb operation in Pakistan’s Waziristan Province, which has severely limited the scope of the terrorist organization. A TTP spokesperson stated that the attack yesterday was chosen in order to “target these enemies of Islam right in their home so they can feel the pain of losing their children.” The attack was truly horrifying and has resulted in condemnations from across the world of the TTP and their methods. 

This is not the first time that the TTP’s actions have resulted in complete disgust and scorn from the population at large. Two years ago, the TTP tried to kill Malala Yousafzai, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate, as a way to blunt her increasing prominence on on the issue of education for girls. Following that attack in 2012, it appeared that the TTP had overreached, crossing a line and losing any potential public support for their cause. Even more than the 2012 attempted murder, the attack in Peshawar has demonstrated the TTP’s brutality and the lack of Pakistani support for their movement. Operation Zarb-e-Azb may have had its critics, but the events in Peshawar have completely changed the narrative. Even the Afghan Taliban, a distinct but occasionally associated group of the TTP, has denounced the Peshawar attacks, expressing “sorrow over the tragedy and grief for the families of the victims.” This is emblematic of the sheer intensity of the Peshwar attack; even an ideologically related and similarly brutal organization has denounced the TTP. 

And this appears to be the major development to watch going forward. Have the TTP reached that invisible tipping point in which they no longer have enough public backing to draw recruits, funding, and tacit support, meaning an effective end to their campaign? 

The most obvious analogue to the attack yesterday is the Chechen terrorist siege of the school in Beslan, Russia in 2004. The deaths of nearly 400 people, most being children, shocked Russia and the rest of the world. Even with the heavy-handed response by the Russian government, the Chechen cause lost any public support that it may have had prior to Beslan. From that point on, Chechen terrorism was a diminished force, only able to conduct operations on a limited basis. Even including the attack in Grozny last week, Chechen terrorism has been unable to reach the level of violence seen in the 1990s and early 2000s. Clearly, the Pakistani government hopes that the TTP will follow a similar path. 

The Real IRA bombing in 1998 in Omagh also demonstrates a case where terrorist actions provoked a backlash from the public and eventually resulted in the marginalization of the group. Following the Good Friday peace agreement, the offshoot RIRA bombed a courthouse in Omagh, killing 29 and turning public opinion further against violence in Northern Ireland. From that point on, offshoot IRA groups like the RIRA have rarely committed terrorist attacks and have elicited limited public support. The TTP, like the RIRA, have been limited by internal power struggles. If the Peshawar attack proved to be the final blow of a dying organization, it’s path could resemble the RIRA.     

The likely reality, although depressing, is that the TTP will continue on with a limited change in their operations. The same question was being asked after Malala Yousafzai was shot in 2012, with countless articles claiming that the attack was a watershed moment in the public perception of the TTP. Clearly, the organization has persevered in the intervening two years. Public disgust of the TTP’s actions in Peshawar are unlikely to seriously limit their actions. Terrorists are nothing without a cause to act in the name of, but the TTP has already shown that complete revulsion of its actions have limited sway on its future terrorist campaigns. 

I hope that the TTP never again represent a serious threat to the people of Pakistan and that the Peshawar attacks are merely the death throes of a failing terrorist organization. But I have serious doubts that this is the turning point for terrorism in Pakistan.  

The Non-State Update: December 12, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Trans-Atlantic Mob Swoop Hits New York’s Gambinos and ‘Ndrangheta: From OCCRP via the Investigative Reporting Project-Italy, news of criminal charges put on organized crime leaders in Italy and the US. Although the Gambino family in New York is a Cosa Nostra descendent, they have allied with ‘Ndrangheta for business purposes.

Displaced by Organized Crime: Unseen and Forgotten: At the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, a shocking post on the refugee crisis that stemmed from the Mexican drug war. According to the post, nearly 200,000 individuals have fled Ciudad Juarez to escape the violence between the Mexican security forces and the cartels. 

Al-Qaida is No Longer the Worldwide Leader in Terror: Next, Joshua Keating at Slate’s The World blog with commentary on the recent King’s College London report on terrorist in November 2014. The two most violent terrorist groups were ISIS and Boko Haram, with the al-Qaida affiliated Taliban falling to third. The threat of terrorism appears more decentralized in 2014 than in 2001, but the al-Qaida brand is additionally not as potent as it once was. 

AQAP Claims Double Suicide Attack at Military Base in Hadramout: The Long War Journal’s Oren Adaki has a report on the recent suicide bombing attack in Yemen. AQAP claimed credit, following in their recent resurgence against the Houthi group and the Yemen government in recent months. The Yemen situation continues to be one of the most fascinating and least reported on global conflict. 

Undercutting the anti-Islamic State Campaign: At the Line of Steel blog, an analytical article on the role that the oil price collapse plays in the battle against ISIS. The price drop negatively impacts the Iraqi state, but it only represents one of the many problems Baghdad needs to address. 

Opportunities to Combat Violent Religious Extremism: Knox Thames at Small Wars Journal has a great piece on the US approach towards violent radicalization and human rights. Drones alone will not solve the problem of religious violence. 

Saving Iraq and Destroying ISIL are Not the Same Thing: War on the Rocks has a post by Jonathan Lord on the current complications of the Obama Administration’s strategy for Iraq and Syria. Fixing Iraq is possible with this strategy; fixing Syria is certainly not. 

State Dept: Rebels are Never Going to Defeat Assad Militarily: In a similar vein to the previous article, a post from John Hudson at FP’s The Cable blog. A senior State official has admitted that with the current strategy, it is impossible to remove Assad by a moderate Syrian force. At best, we can contain the conflict in Syria, but it is unlikely that this ends with the defeat of Assad. 

Three Questions as Colombia’s Peace Process Begins: At Insight Crime, Elyssa Pachico has a great piece on the major issues remaining in the FARC peace talks and the future of Colombia after a peace deal. One of the most important concerns is how a FARC demobilization will affect the Bacrim groups. Already, some Bacrim groups have begun taking over territory from demobilizing FARC fronts. 

The New King of Coke: Finally, from Vice News, a five-part documentary on the shift of cocaine production from Colombia to Peru. Like always, this Vice documentary is unbelievable in its access. Watch it, it’s excellent. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: December 5, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Paranoia Could Be the Best Weapon Against the Islamic State: First off, David Ignatius at The Washington Post with a piece on the potential for unconventional, psychological operations against ISIS. Among other things, he cites the excellent book Double Cross by Ben Macintyre, as well as the War on the Rocks site, frequently cited in previous Non-State Updates. If we can cause dissension in the ISIS ranks, we can hopefully break up the group into competing factions.

Serbia: Tycoons Questioned Over Assassination Attempt: Next, OCCRP with news of Serbian businessman Miroslav Miskovic’s alleged links to the murder of a former Serbian politician. Although Miskovic has not been arrested, he has been linked with various organized criminals. 

Islamic State Supporters Advertise Sinai as Jihadist Destination: From Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal, reports of online propaganda encouraging jihadists abroad to go to the Sinai Peninsula as a part of the ISIS effort. ISIS doesn’t control Sinai yet, but this development represents their desire to expand the “caliphate” into new territories. 

Surprise! Joining ISIS Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be: Siobhan O’Grady at Foreign Policy’s Passport blog with commentary on an Indian jihadist’s time with ISIS. Instead of fighting for the cause, he was stuck cleaning toilets for the organization. As it turns out, ISIS isn’t the most egalitarian terrorist group out there. The young radical is now in jail in India. 

ISIS Stunt to Mint Own Coins Will Backfire: Money Jihad has a short take on the continued rumors that ISIS is planning on creating its own currency. Although the rumors appear to be false, the concept behind such a currency is economically flawed. It is fascinating in that the Islamic State is trying to become more state-like. 

Fighting in Grozny, Chechnya: At the Line of Steel, Caleb Weiss with information on the likely Caucasus Emirate-led attack last night in the capital of the Russian region of Chechnya. Much of the information in this story is still developing, but the video and photos attached to this article are quite interesting. 

ISIS’s Brutality Undermines its Interests. That’s Good for Us: Aki Peritz at Overt Action re-ups a piece he and Robin Simcox had in the Washington Post last weekend on the irrational strategy of ISIS. Their beheadings and mass killings have encouraged Western nations to begin attacking them, but if they had not been as provocative, they would be able to fortify their nascent state. Their reliance on brutality for propaganda has brought them far more enemies than allies. 

What’s the Plan? The Afghan National Security Forces: Part 3 of a continuing series at War on the Rocks (Part 1 and Part 2) from Jason Cambell on Afghanistan, the health of its institutions, and the overall plan going forward. The Afghan security forces still have a multitude of challenges, especially as ISAF leaves the country. Reform is necessary, but thankfully the new president Ashraf Ghani is committed to addressing the problems. 

Peru Seizes $1Bn in Assets from Leader of Massive Crime Ring: From David Gagne at InSight Crime, news that Peruvian officials have seized Rodolfo Orellana’s 17 estates, adding up to nearly 1 billion dollars. Orellana is currently in jail, but his vast assets demonstrate the level of governmental complicity and the sheer scale of his empire. He gained his fortune through illegal real estate trade, but also has connections with organized crime in Colombia, Mexico, and Italy. 

Marijuana Dispensaries are Celebrating Black Friday, Too: Lastly, an article that’s a little funnier than those above. From Laura Bradley at Slate’s Moneybox blog, an article posted last week on the Colorado marijuana dispensary industry’s approach to Black Friday. A dispensary employee quoted in the article says the Black Friday sales are just to “spread the holiday cheer and get everybody a little bit high.” 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.

The Non-State Update: November 28, 2014

We here at D&TB hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving with your families. After the much needed mid-week break, the weekend is here once more. 

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Sidelining the Spoilers: First off, Virginia Bouvier and George A. Lopez have a piece at Foreign Policy on the Colombian peace process and the role that FARC spoilers play. The peace talks stalled after the kidnapping of a Colombian general earlier this month, but the sides need to begin negotiating again, or else lose the chance for peace. 

Foul Play: James Rodriguez’s Former Club Sanctioned for “Laundering Cartel Cash”: Also in Colombian news, OCCRP has a report on the new OFAC sanctions list, specifically those targeting narcotics traffickers. Because of its relationship with La Oficinia de Envigado, the local Envigado Futbol Club has been sanctioned by the US. 

The Islamic State’s Stalled Offensive in Anbar Province: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at War on the Rocks has a piece on the ISIS campaign over the past month. The article outlines the ISIS campaign against the Iraqi cities of Hit and Amiriyah. Although ISIS remains effective, their march has been slowed and they appear contained in Anbar Province. 

The Iraqi Army Begins Retaking Ground: In the same optimistic vein, an article from Tom at The Line of Steel blog on the Iraqi Army’s recently recaptured ground. Much of the success can be attributed to Abadi’s leadership, as well as the US airstrikes. Things might be turning the corner in Iraq. 

Low on Donations, AQAP Goes on Robbery Spree: At Money Jihad, a post on the dwindling resources of AQAP. The group is in such dire financial straights, they have decided to become petty criminals and rob banks. This is excellent news; criminality by ideological terrorist groups is frequently seen in the death throes of the groups. 

Haqqani Network Launched Suicide Attack at Soccer Game, Afghan Intel Claims: From Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal, news that the recent suicide attack that killed at least 57 individuals was likely committed by the Haqqani Network. Although the attack took place at a soccer match, the intended target was the local police commander that had expelled the Taliban from that region. 

Liquid Cocaine, Bolivia’s Undetectable Drug: David Gagne at InSight Crime has an article on Bolivia’s drug interdiction failures, most notably in identifying liquid cocaine. Because liquid cocaine is so difficult to detect, drug smugglers spray it onto clothes and extract the cocaine after crossing the border. Drug traffickers will continue to evade law enforcement methods, but this is particularly ingenious. 

In a Shift, Obama Extends US Role in Afghan Combat: At the New York Times, Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt with an article on a recent change in the US military mission in Afghanistan. The new action allows US forces to continue operating against the Taliban and other organizations through 2015, despite the initial mission being limited to hunting al-Qaeda and training the Afghan security forces. 

Reflections on the Third Anniversary of the Death of Qaddafi: David Wise has a piece at the Small Wars Journal on the failures of the Libya campaign in 2011, now that we have reached the third year since Muammar Qaddafi was killed. This is a great, short piece on the lessons we should learn from Libya. 

Chasing the Dread Pirate Roberts: Finally, a change of pace from the articles above. NPR’s Planet Money podcast is always great, but their recent episode focused on a perfectly Drugs and Thugs topic, the Silk Road and its founder, the enigmatic Dread Pirate Roberts. It’s a fascinating listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Does the World Have a Terrorism Problem or an Insurgency Problem?: First off, a post from Slate’s The World blog by Josh Keating on the release of the yearly Global Terrorism Index. Although the results show increased deaths due to terrorism, many of the combatants are, in actuality, insurgencies. It’s a fine line distinguishing the two, but it matters. 

Boko Haram Gun-Running in Cameroon: At Money Jihad, a short news post on the Nigerian group Boko Haram’s involvement in arms trafficking in northern Cameroon. The potential internationalization of the group is a serious threat to African security. 

Colombian Peace Process Suspended: Action of Rogue FARC Unit?: Jeremy McDermott at InSight Crime with news of a suspension in the Colombian-FARC peace talks, due to the kidnapping of a Colombian general. If the talks do recommence, this kind of spoiler violence will continue to be a hurdle to overcome. The decentralized nature of FARC makes this even more likely. 

Local Ceasefires in Syria: What are the Prospects?: At the Political Violence @ a Glance blog, Oliver Kaplan has a take on the potential for local peace deals in Syria. Although these have been seen in other conflicts, Kaplan isn’t terribly optimistic on their chances in Syria. 

Seven Black Swans of the Iraq/Syria Conflict: From Aki Peritz at Overt Action, a list of seven unlikely but potential events that could have a huge impact on the conflict. Improbable outcomes are still possible, no matter how unlikely. This is a really interesting thought experiment. 

Major Taliban Offensive in Western Afghanistan: Caleb Weiss at The Line of Steel blog has a post on a recent Taliban attack near Farah with around 400 fighters. Increased Taliban action was expected as the ISAF troops withdrew, but the group has been surprisingly active in recent months. 

US Military Continues to Claim al Qaeda is ‘Restricted’ to ‘Isolated Areas of Northeastern Afghanistan’: Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal disputes a report from the Department of Defense that al-Qaeda’s actions in Afghanistan are limited geographically. ISAF actions in Afghanistan may have limited the potential for terrorist attacks abroad, but Roggio argues that al-Qaeda has been active in a much larger portion of the country than the DoD report shows. 

Italy: ‘Ndrangheta Initiation Ritual Exposed: At OCCRP, a report on the arrest of 40 ‘Ndrangheta criminals because of an undercover video of the gang’s initiation. The video is linked on the article and it’s fascinating. It’s rare to see such a secretive organization up close like this. 

Putting the Islamic State Over a Barrel: A Foreign Policy report by Keith Johnson on ISIS’s oil finances and the best ways to stop the flow. Although Treasury sanctions can be useful, direct military action is the most effective to disrupt ISIS oil money. Additionally, regional cooperation on the truck routes can diminish the link between ISIS-occupied oil fields and consumers. 

A Ticket to Turkey and a Desire to Fight: Why Some Foreign Fighters Travel to Syria: Chelsea Daymon has an article at Small Wars Journal on what motivates the numerous foreign fighters to travel to the war zone in Syria. Daymon looks at examples from the Netherlands, America, Canada, and the UK to demonstrate why these individuals choose to fight abroad. 

The Counterinsurgency Paradigm Shift: Finally, a piece from Justin Lynch at War on the Rocks arguing for the continuation of counterinsurgency readiness and knowledge in the US military. The wars we will fight in the future will look more like Iraq in 2006 than  the Cold War image of Russian tanks at the Fulda Gap. We need to maintain our proficiency in the dirty wars because will are likely to continue to fight them. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

This Week in Drugs and Thugs: November 14, 2014

Welcome to this Friday's edition of This Week in Drugs and Thugs. It's been another wild week of international security news, but the weekend is finally here. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Announced Zetas, Gulf Alliances Could Change Mexico’s Criminal Landscape: First off, from David Gagne at InSight Crime, a stunning development in Mexican cartel alliance structure, if true. If sections of the Zetas are really ending the fight against Gulf Cartel, the organization that they broke off from years ago, this could be a massive move against the Sinaloa Cartel. This is definitely worth following in the coming months. 

No Blacklist Yet for Islamic State Banks: FP’s Jamila Trindle reports on the US Treasury Department’s actions and rationale for inaction against banks existing in the territory controlled by ISIS. Although Treasury could shut those banks entirely out of the international finance system, the action has not happened, likely because ISIS receives most of its funding through criminal means, not from donors. 

Law Enforcement Takes on the Black Markets of the “Dark Web”: Although Tor networks are considered to be impenetrable, law enforcement in the US and Europe have arrested 17 and shut down over 400 dark web markets, reports OCCRP. This action comes in the wake of an FBI operation last year that resulted in the closure of the most famous dark web market, Silk Road. All of the sites involved were selling either drugs, stolen/fake credit cards, fake currency, or fake identification documents. 

American Power and the Culmination of Unconventional Warfare: Steve Thomas at War on the Rocks has a take on the necessity for more integrated interagency coordination in unconventional warfare. The US will continue to deal with unconventional warfare both now and in the future, so we should be ready to do so. Thomas argues that the CIA, State, and USAID should be brought into current Army and Marine Special Forces exercises in order to build relationships between the agencies. 

AQAP Continues Escalation of Attacks in Yemen, Targets US Ambassador: The Long War Journal’s Oren Adaki with a post on AQAP actions in Yemen this week, most notably two IEDs near the Yemeni President’s residence set to explode when the US Ambassador left a meeting there. Later in the week, the US killed seven AQAP members by drone strike. The conflict in Yemen between the Houthi rebels, AQAP, the Yemeni government, and US drones continues to be the most fascinating and underreported international security story. 

The Rise of the Islamic State and How to Reverse It: At Small Wars Journal, Mbaye Bashir Lo has a piece on where ISIS came from, its ideological and territorial goals, and its place in a state-less region. “Obama might have been right that IS ‘is neither Islamic nor a state,’ but IS has to be defeated by both—Islam and the State.’”

What Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?: Slate’s Joshua Keating speculates what the potential rapprochement between the two leading jihadist groups means for any remaining Syrian moderate rebels. Strategically, this complicates Obama’s current policy only focused on Iraq. As always, more to come on this issue. 

Putin Sends His ‘Leopard’ to the Battlefield of Eastern Ukraine: At FP again, Michael Weiss and James Miller with a report on the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically on the heavy weapons systems involved. If the Donetsk separatists now have access to these systems, it represents a serious increase in firepower on the separatists’ side and increased involvement for Russia. Ukraine may have been described as a frozen conflict in recent weeks, but this is proof that the conflict is 

anything but frozen. 

Libya, A Broken State: Finally, a new Vice News documentary from the front lines of the conflict in Libya. Vice News continues their streak of unbelievable access with militant groups, this time embedded with a group known as Libyan Dawn, currently fighting against the Libyan government. This documentary is fascinating. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions for D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

This Week in Drugs and Thugs: November 7, 2014

Although this week’s news has been dominated by the 2014 midterm elections, the drugs and thugs world continues on. Here’s a list of some of the more interesting news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed will focus on terrorism, insurgencies, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

War, Interrupted, Parts 1 & 2: From Craig Whiteside at War on the Rocks, a two part article on where ISIS came from. Although the general narrative is that ISIS arose from the Syrian conflict, Whiteside argues that as the remnants of al-Qaeda in Iraq, they methodologically planned their way back to power. By targeting Awakening leaders and the Iraqi judicial system, they were able to create an environment in which they could return to prominence. These are excellent articles. 

US Drone Strike Kills 20 AQAP Fighters in Yemen: Via Bill Roggio and Oren Adaki at The Long War Journal, a report on a recent drone strike near the region where AQAP and the Houthis have been fighting. Although the ISIS campaign has been the most prominent news story in the Middle East this year, the conflict between AQAP, the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and US drones has been underreported and absolutely fascinating. 

Colombia’s BACRIM Expand as FARC Talks Peace: Marguerite Cawley at InSight Crime examines the expansion of BACRIM (criminal bands) groups’ cocaine trafficking into FARC territory. Although peace talks are not finalized, the BACRIM groups appear to be situating themselves to take control once the talks in Havana finish.  Even with a successful peace agreement, there is a high likelihood that portions of the FARC will continue trafficking, much like how the AUC evolved into many of the BACRIM groups. 

Turkey Ignores ISIS’ Interest in Anatolia at its Peril: Aki Peritz at Overt Action analyzes the lack of Turkish action against ISIS. Although Erdogan claims that foreign fighters have never used Turkey as a transit zone, the reality is that Turkish inaction has allowed ISIS to expand. ISIS has regional goals, which include the capture of the last seat of the caliphate, Istanbul.  Turkey can feign ignorance for now, but inaction will lead to blowback. 

Chiquita Partly Off Hook in Terror Finance Case: Money Jihad’s post from earlier this week reports on the dismissal of the case arguing that Chiquita paid Colombian AUC insurgents for security in direct violation of US sanctions. Although they have already paid $25 million, the dismissal of the lawsuit is surprising. 

Moldovan Crime Boss Arrested After Selling Weapons to OCCRP Journalists: OCCRP reports on their involvement in the arrest of Ion Druta, an organized crime boss in Transnistria, a breakaway province of Moldova. OCCRP reporters went undercover to buy weapons from him, leading to his arrest. Druta is alleged to have been supplying weapons to Ukrainian separatists. 

Decentralization: The Future of ISIS: Major Nicholas Pace published an article at Small Wars Journal on the prospects for decentralization and potential breakup of sections of ISIS. This similarly happened to al-Qaeda, resulting in separate groups like ISIS. Pace also argues that we should have a greater impetus on attacking their ideology, not just their networks. 

Sorrow, Memory, and the End of the Helmand Campaign: War on the Rocks Editor-in-Chief Ryan Evans had an excellent article earlier this week on his experience in Helmand and the feelings that came out after US and British troops ended their mission in the province. The conflict he feels is surprisingly personal and haunting. 

War and Basketball: Finally, a moment of levity. Joshua Keating’s The World blog at Slate is always excellent, but this post was both poignant and hilarious. Trying to reimagine the current conflict in the Middle East as a Duke basketball game gone horribly wrong was just great. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

Foreign Policy ADD: US Troops Leave Helmand Province

Secretly and quietly, US and British troops left Helmand Province, Afghanistan for the final time last week. After over a decade of US involvement in the region, the mission in this section of Afghanistan has ended. Taken in anticipation of the major drawdown of troops slated for 2016, this move is quite dramatic and relatively unexpected. It represents a serious shift in US policy towards the ongoing war in Afghanistan. Additionally, it’s an intriguing development in the nexus of narcotics and insurgency. Helmand, along with neighboring Kandahar, produces the majority of Afghan heroin, which in turn provides nearly all of the world supply. It is also the region in which the Taliban are most concentrated. Although the troops have some faith in their Afghan replacements, it is unclear whether the Afghan government will be able to take advantage of the relative security in Helmand province and establish their sovereignty. Time will tell whether or not Helmand province will devolve to warlordism and poppy-fueled crime once again. 

Between all of the conflicts currently ongoing around the world, though, it does feel like the country has forgotten about our involvement in Afghanistan. Even in the realm of foreign policy professionals, it appears that events in our longest war have been overshadowed. While this behavior is relatively common, our foreign policy ADD is concerning. Public interest and media attention are expected to jump from topic to topic in rapid succession. This summer is an excellent example; within a few months, the biggest world story had moved from Ukraine to Iraq to Gaza to Syria to West Africa. Although all of these conflicts continue to have follow-on effects, the media has moved on. The real concern is that our distracted foreign policy process extends to governmental institutions. Instead of real planning for long-term concerns, we fall prey to the tyranny of the present, to the detriment of our global interests. Crises happen and must be dealt with, but when the parade of crises take precedence over larger issues, then we have a problem with our process. 

The war in Afghanistan, while winding down, is still ongoing. Just because the public furor over newly arrived crises is more intense does not mean that discarded foreign policy issues have gone away. 

This Week, Pure and Uncut: October 31, 2014

Happy Halloween, readers. It’s been another busy week in the drugs and thugs world. Here’s a quick list of some of the more interesting news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed will focus on terrorism, insurgencies, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

ISIS is a Part-Time Terrorist Group: From Slate’s Joshua Keating, a discussion on the distinction between terrorists and rebels, showing that ISIS slots somewhere in the gray region between those terms. The term “terrorist” might be misapplied only because it is politically expedient to do so. (Not to self-promote, but this is similar to my thoughts from two weeks ago). 

Governor Replaced in Missing Student Controversy: From OCCRP, a report on the effective resignation of the governor of Guerrero state in Mexico. This comes in the wake of the massacre of over forty demonstrators by drug cartel members, assisted by local police officers. 

Treasury Hopes ISIS Will Go Broke on its Own: From Money Jihad, commentary on Treasury official David Cohen on ISIS’s finances. Although US financial actions will prove difficult to make much of an impact, the Treasury is betting that the necessity of governance will bankrupt ISIS. 

Fighting Between Jihadists, Haftar’s Forces Escalates in Benghazi: From Caleb Weiss at The Long War Journal, an article on the current conflict between the Libyan state and the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council. The Shura Council is heavily supported by Ansar al Sharia, an al-Qaeda affiliate group. Heavy fighting continues in Libya in the fallout of the 2011 revolution. 

Mexico’s Knights Templar Leader Vows Never to Surrender: At InSight Crime, David Gagne’s article notes that La Tuta, the current head of the Knights Templar (Caballeros Templarios) cartel has released audio in which he states his defiance of Mexican authorities. Although it would be more rational to retrench his position, La Tuta has decided to fight to the bitter end. 

Fighting ISIS: We Should Admit That What We’re Doing is a Containment Strategy: From Tom Ricks’s The Best Defense blog at Foreign Policy, a guest post by Col. Gary Anderson. Anderson highlights the inability of our current strategy to truly defeat ISIS, although it will likely be successful in limiting their expansion. 

Strategic Overstretch and the Jihadist Generation Gap: From Mark Stout at War on the Rocks, a comparison of ISIS and al-Qaeda Central through their publications. Stout personifies ISIS as the drunk scruffy teenage son and AQ Central as the cardigan-wearing repressed father, arguing that the difference between the two groups might be simply generational.

Knife Fights: John Nagl’s Reflections on the Practice of Modern War: Octavian Manea interviews John Nagl at Small Wars Journal on the lessons learned both on the battlefield and in the bureaucracy. Nagl’s responses are profound, calling upon influences as disparate as TE Lawrence, St. Augustine, and Mao Zedong. This is an excellent interview. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, or criticism, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin (Drugs And Thugs Blog)

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend.