Yesterday, the Tehrik-i-Taliban, also known as the Pakistani Taliban or the TTP, brutally massacred students and teachers at a school in Peshawar, Pakistan. Seven TTP members, armed with weapons and explosives vests, entered Peshawar’s Army Public School facility and murdered at least 132 students and nine staff members. Pakistani special forces eventually killed the TTP terrorists and ended the siege late in the day, but the horrific damage had already been done.
The TTP claims that the attack on the Army Public School was in retribution for the ongoing Zarb-e-Azb operation in Pakistan’s Waziristan Province, which has severely limited the scope of the terrorist organization. A TTP spokesperson stated that the attack yesterday was chosen in order to “target these enemies of Islam right in their home so they can feel the pain of losing their children.” The attack was truly horrifying and has resulted in condemnations from across the world of the TTP and their methods.
This is not the first time that the TTP’s actions have resulted in complete disgust and scorn from the population at large. Two years ago, the TTP tried to kill Malala Yousafzai, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate, as a way to blunt her increasing prominence on on the issue of education for girls. Following that attack in 2012, it appeared that the TTP had overreached, crossing a line and losing any potential public support for their cause. Even more than the 2012 attempted murder, the attack in Peshawar has demonstrated the TTP’s brutality and the lack of Pakistani support for their movement. Operation Zarb-e-Azb may have had its critics, but the events in Peshawar have completely changed the narrative. Even the Afghan Taliban, a distinct but occasionally associated group of the TTP, has denounced the Peshawar attacks, expressing “sorrow over the tragedy and grief for the families of the victims.” This is emblematic of the sheer intensity of the Peshwar attack; even an ideologically related and similarly brutal organization has denounced the TTP.
And this appears to be the major development to watch going forward. Have the TTP reached that invisible tipping point in which they no longer have enough public backing to draw recruits, funding, and tacit support, meaning an effective end to their campaign?
The most obvious analogue to the attack yesterday is the Chechen terrorist siege of the school in Beslan, Russia in 2004. The deaths of nearly 400 people, most being children, shocked Russia and the rest of the world. Even with the heavy-handed response by the Russian government, the Chechen cause lost any public support that it may have had prior to Beslan. From that point on, Chechen terrorism was a diminished force, only able to conduct operations on a limited basis. Even including the attack in Grozny last week, Chechen terrorism has been unable to reach the level of violence seen in the 1990s and early 2000s. Clearly, the Pakistani government hopes that the TTP will follow a similar path.
The Real IRA bombing in 1998 in Omagh also demonstrates a case where terrorist actions provoked a backlash from the public and eventually resulted in the marginalization of the group. Following the Good Friday peace agreement, the offshoot RIRA bombed a courthouse in Omagh, killing 29 and turning public opinion further against violence in Northern Ireland. From that point on, offshoot IRA groups like the RIRA have rarely committed terrorist attacks and have elicited limited public support. The TTP, like the RIRA, have been limited by internal power struggles. If the Peshawar attack proved to be the final blow of a dying organization, it’s path could resemble the RIRA.
The likely reality, although depressing, is that the TTP will continue on with a limited change in their operations. The same question was being asked after Malala Yousafzai was shot in 2012, with countless articles claiming that the attack was a watershed moment in the public perception of the TTP. Clearly, the organization has persevered in the intervening two years. Public disgust of the TTP’s actions in Peshawar are unlikely to seriously limit their actions. Terrorists are nothing without a cause to act in the name of, but the TTP has already shown that complete revulsion of its actions have limited sway on its future terrorist campaigns.
I hope that the TTP never again represent a serious threat to the people of Pakistan and that the Peshawar attacks are merely the death throes of a failing terrorist organization. But I have serious doubts that this is the turning point for terrorism in Pakistan.
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