The Non-State Update: November 28, 2014

We here at D&TB hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving with your families. After the much needed mid-week break, the weekend is here once more. 

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Sidelining the Spoilers: First off, Virginia Bouvier and George A. Lopez have a piece at Foreign Policy on the Colombian peace process and the role that FARC spoilers play. The peace talks stalled after the kidnapping of a Colombian general earlier this month, but the sides need to begin negotiating again, or else lose the chance for peace. 

Foul Play: James Rodriguez’s Former Club Sanctioned for “Laundering Cartel Cash”: Also in Colombian news, OCCRP has a report on the new OFAC sanctions list, specifically those targeting narcotics traffickers. Because of its relationship with La Oficinia de Envigado, the local Envigado Futbol Club has been sanctioned by the US. 

The Islamic State’s Stalled Offensive in Anbar Province: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at War on the Rocks has a piece on the ISIS campaign over the past month. The article outlines the ISIS campaign against the Iraqi cities of Hit and Amiriyah. Although ISIS remains effective, their march has been slowed and they appear contained in Anbar Province. 

The Iraqi Army Begins Retaking Ground: In the same optimistic vein, an article from Tom at The Line of Steel blog on the Iraqi Army’s recently recaptured ground. Much of the success can be attributed to Abadi’s leadership, as well as the US airstrikes. Things might be turning the corner in Iraq. 

Low on Donations, AQAP Goes on Robbery Spree: At Money Jihad, a post on the dwindling resources of AQAP. The group is in such dire financial straights, they have decided to become petty criminals and rob banks. This is excellent news; criminality by ideological terrorist groups is frequently seen in the death throes of the groups. 

Haqqani Network Launched Suicide Attack at Soccer Game, Afghan Intel Claims: From Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal, news that the recent suicide attack that killed at least 57 individuals was likely committed by the Haqqani Network. Although the attack took place at a soccer match, the intended target was the local police commander that had expelled the Taliban from that region. 

Liquid Cocaine, Bolivia’s Undetectable Drug: David Gagne at InSight Crime has an article on Bolivia’s drug interdiction failures, most notably in identifying liquid cocaine. Because liquid cocaine is so difficult to detect, drug smugglers spray it onto clothes and extract the cocaine after crossing the border. Drug traffickers will continue to evade law enforcement methods, but this is particularly ingenious. 

In a Shift, Obama Extends US Role in Afghan Combat: At the New York Times, Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt with an article on a recent change in the US military mission in Afghanistan. The new action allows US forces to continue operating against the Taliban and other organizations through 2015, despite the initial mission being limited to hunting al-Qaeda and training the Afghan security forces. 

Reflections on the Third Anniversary of the Death of Qaddafi: David Wise has a piece at the Small Wars Journal on the failures of the Libya campaign in 2011, now that we have reached the third year since Muammar Qaddafi was killed. This is a great, short piece on the lessons we should learn from Libya. 

Chasing the Dread Pirate Roberts: Finally, a change of pace from the articles above. NPR’s Planet Money podcast is always great, but their recent episode focused on a perfectly Drugs and Thugs topic, the Silk Road and its founder, the enigmatic Dread Pirate Roberts. It’s a fascinating listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Does the World Have a Terrorism Problem or an Insurgency Problem?: First off, a post from Slate’s The World blog by Josh Keating on the release of the yearly Global Terrorism Index. Although the results show increased deaths due to terrorism, many of the combatants are, in actuality, insurgencies. It’s a fine line distinguishing the two, but it matters. 

Boko Haram Gun-Running in Cameroon: At Money Jihad, a short news post on the Nigerian group Boko Haram’s involvement in arms trafficking in northern Cameroon. The potential internationalization of the group is a serious threat to African security. 

Colombian Peace Process Suspended: Action of Rogue FARC Unit?: Jeremy McDermott at InSight Crime with news of a suspension in the Colombian-FARC peace talks, due to the kidnapping of a Colombian general. If the talks do recommence, this kind of spoiler violence will continue to be a hurdle to overcome. The decentralized nature of FARC makes this even more likely. 

Local Ceasefires in Syria: What are the Prospects?: At the Political Violence @ a Glance blog, Oliver Kaplan has a take on the potential for local peace deals in Syria. Although these have been seen in other conflicts, Kaplan isn’t terribly optimistic on their chances in Syria. 

Seven Black Swans of the Iraq/Syria Conflict: From Aki Peritz at Overt Action, a list of seven unlikely but potential events that could have a huge impact on the conflict. Improbable outcomes are still possible, no matter how unlikely. This is a really interesting thought experiment. 

Major Taliban Offensive in Western Afghanistan: Caleb Weiss at The Line of Steel blog has a post on a recent Taliban attack near Farah with around 400 fighters. Increased Taliban action was expected as the ISAF troops withdrew, but the group has been surprisingly active in recent months. 

US Military Continues to Claim al Qaeda is ‘Restricted’ to ‘Isolated Areas of Northeastern Afghanistan’: Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal disputes a report from the Department of Defense that al-Qaeda’s actions in Afghanistan are limited geographically. ISAF actions in Afghanistan may have limited the potential for terrorist attacks abroad, but Roggio argues that al-Qaeda has been active in a much larger portion of the country than the DoD report shows. 

Italy: ‘Ndrangheta Initiation Ritual Exposed: At OCCRP, a report on the arrest of 40 ‘Ndrangheta criminals because of an undercover video of the gang’s initiation. The video is linked on the article and it’s fascinating. It’s rare to see such a secretive organization up close like this. 

Putting the Islamic State Over a Barrel: A Foreign Policy report by Keith Johnson on ISIS’s oil finances and the best ways to stop the flow. Although Treasury sanctions can be useful, direct military action is the most effective to disrupt ISIS oil money. Additionally, regional cooperation on the truck routes can diminish the link between ISIS-occupied oil fields and consumers. 

A Ticket to Turkey and a Desire to Fight: Why Some Foreign Fighters Travel to Syria: Chelsea Daymon has an article at Small Wars Journal on what motivates the numerous foreign fighters to travel to the war zone in Syria. Daymon looks at examples from the Netherlands, America, Canada, and the UK to demonstrate why these individuals choose to fight abroad. 

The Counterinsurgency Paradigm Shift: Finally, a piece from Justin Lynch at War on the Rocks arguing for the continuation of counterinsurgency readiness and knowledge in the US military. The wars we will fight in the future will look more like Iraq in 2006 than  the Cold War image of Russian tanks at the Fulda Gap. We need to maintain our proficiency in the dirty wars because will are likely to continue to fight them. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

This Week in Drugs and Thugs: November 14, 2014

Welcome to this Friday's edition of This Week in Drugs and Thugs. It's been another wild week of international security news, but the weekend is finally here. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Announced Zetas, Gulf Alliances Could Change Mexico’s Criminal Landscape: First off, from David Gagne at InSight Crime, a stunning development in Mexican cartel alliance structure, if true. If sections of the Zetas are really ending the fight against Gulf Cartel, the organization that they broke off from years ago, this could be a massive move against the Sinaloa Cartel. This is definitely worth following in the coming months. 

No Blacklist Yet for Islamic State Banks: FP’s Jamila Trindle reports on the US Treasury Department’s actions and rationale for inaction against banks existing in the territory controlled by ISIS. Although Treasury could shut those banks entirely out of the international finance system, the action has not happened, likely because ISIS receives most of its funding through criminal means, not from donors. 

Law Enforcement Takes on the Black Markets of the “Dark Web”: Although Tor networks are considered to be impenetrable, law enforcement in the US and Europe have arrested 17 and shut down over 400 dark web markets, reports OCCRP. This action comes in the wake of an FBI operation last year that resulted in the closure of the most famous dark web market, Silk Road. All of the sites involved were selling either drugs, stolen/fake credit cards, fake currency, or fake identification documents. 

American Power and the Culmination of Unconventional Warfare: Steve Thomas at War on the Rocks has a take on the necessity for more integrated interagency coordination in unconventional warfare. The US will continue to deal with unconventional warfare both now and in the future, so we should be ready to do so. Thomas argues that the CIA, State, and USAID should be brought into current Army and Marine Special Forces exercises in order to build relationships between the agencies. 

AQAP Continues Escalation of Attacks in Yemen, Targets US Ambassador: The Long War Journal’s Oren Adaki with a post on AQAP actions in Yemen this week, most notably two IEDs near the Yemeni President’s residence set to explode when the US Ambassador left a meeting there. Later in the week, the US killed seven AQAP members by drone strike. The conflict in Yemen between the Houthi rebels, AQAP, the Yemeni government, and US drones continues to be the most fascinating and underreported international security story. 

The Rise of the Islamic State and How to Reverse It: At Small Wars Journal, Mbaye Bashir Lo has a piece on where ISIS came from, its ideological and territorial goals, and its place in a state-less region. “Obama might have been right that IS ‘is neither Islamic nor a state,’ but IS has to be defeated by both—Islam and the State.’”

What Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?: Slate’s Joshua Keating speculates what the potential rapprochement between the two leading jihadist groups means for any remaining Syrian moderate rebels. Strategically, this complicates Obama’s current policy only focused on Iraq. As always, more to come on this issue. 

Putin Sends His ‘Leopard’ to the Battlefield of Eastern Ukraine: At FP again, Michael Weiss and James Miller with a report on the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically on the heavy weapons systems involved. If the Donetsk separatists now have access to these systems, it represents a serious increase in firepower on the separatists’ side and increased involvement for Russia. Ukraine may have been described as a frozen conflict in recent weeks, but this is proof that the conflict is 

anything but frozen. 

Libya, A Broken State: Finally, a new Vice News documentary from the front lines of the conflict in Libya. Vice News continues their streak of unbelievable access with militant groups, this time embedded with a group known as Libyan Dawn, currently fighting against the Libyan government. This documentary is fascinating. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions for D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

This Week in Drugs and Thugs: November 7, 2014

Although this week’s news has been dominated by the 2014 midterm elections, the drugs and thugs world continues on. Here’s a list of some of the more interesting news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed will focus on terrorism, insurgencies, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

War, Interrupted, Parts 1 & 2: From Craig Whiteside at War on the Rocks, a two part article on where ISIS came from. Although the general narrative is that ISIS arose from the Syrian conflict, Whiteside argues that as the remnants of al-Qaeda in Iraq, they methodologically planned their way back to power. By targeting Awakening leaders and the Iraqi judicial system, they were able to create an environment in which they could return to prominence. These are excellent articles. 

US Drone Strike Kills 20 AQAP Fighters in Yemen: Via Bill Roggio and Oren Adaki at The Long War Journal, a report on a recent drone strike near the region where AQAP and the Houthis have been fighting. Although the ISIS campaign has been the most prominent news story in the Middle East this year, the conflict between AQAP, the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and US drones has been underreported and absolutely fascinating. 

Colombia’s BACRIM Expand as FARC Talks Peace: Marguerite Cawley at InSight Crime examines the expansion of BACRIM (criminal bands) groups’ cocaine trafficking into FARC territory. Although peace talks are not finalized, the BACRIM groups appear to be situating themselves to take control once the talks in Havana finish.  Even with a successful peace agreement, there is a high likelihood that portions of the FARC will continue trafficking, much like how the AUC evolved into many of the BACRIM groups. 

Turkey Ignores ISIS’ Interest in Anatolia at its Peril: Aki Peritz at Overt Action analyzes the lack of Turkish action against ISIS. Although Erdogan claims that foreign fighters have never used Turkey as a transit zone, the reality is that Turkish inaction has allowed ISIS to expand. ISIS has regional goals, which include the capture of the last seat of the caliphate, Istanbul.  Turkey can feign ignorance for now, but inaction will lead to blowback. 

Chiquita Partly Off Hook in Terror Finance Case: Money Jihad’s post from earlier this week reports on the dismissal of the case arguing that Chiquita paid Colombian AUC insurgents for security in direct violation of US sanctions. Although they have already paid $25 million, the dismissal of the lawsuit is surprising. 

Moldovan Crime Boss Arrested After Selling Weapons to OCCRP Journalists: OCCRP reports on their involvement in the arrest of Ion Druta, an organized crime boss in Transnistria, a breakaway province of Moldova. OCCRP reporters went undercover to buy weapons from him, leading to his arrest. Druta is alleged to have been supplying weapons to Ukrainian separatists. 

Decentralization: The Future of ISIS: Major Nicholas Pace published an article at Small Wars Journal on the prospects for decentralization and potential breakup of sections of ISIS. This similarly happened to al-Qaeda, resulting in separate groups like ISIS. Pace also argues that we should have a greater impetus on attacking their ideology, not just their networks. 

Sorrow, Memory, and the End of the Helmand Campaign: War on the Rocks Editor-in-Chief Ryan Evans had an excellent article earlier this week on his experience in Helmand and the feelings that came out after US and British troops ended their mission in the province. The conflict he feels is surprisingly personal and haunting. 

War and Basketball: Finally, a moment of levity. Joshua Keating’s The World blog at Slate is always excellent, but this post was both poignant and hilarious. Trying to reimagine the current conflict in the Middle East as a Duke basketball game gone horribly wrong was just great. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin 

Foreign Policy ADD: US Troops Leave Helmand Province

Secretly and quietly, US and British troops left Helmand Province, Afghanistan for the final time last week. After over a decade of US involvement in the region, the mission in this section of Afghanistan has ended. Taken in anticipation of the major drawdown of troops slated for 2016, this move is quite dramatic and relatively unexpected. It represents a serious shift in US policy towards the ongoing war in Afghanistan. Additionally, it’s an intriguing development in the nexus of narcotics and insurgency. Helmand, along with neighboring Kandahar, produces the majority of Afghan heroin, which in turn provides nearly all of the world supply. It is also the region in which the Taliban are most concentrated. Although the troops have some faith in their Afghan replacements, it is unclear whether the Afghan government will be able to take advantage of the relative security in Helmand province and establish their sovereignty. Time will tell whether or not Helmand province will devolve to warlordism and poppy-fueled crime once again. 

Between all of the conflicts currently ongoing around the world, though, it does feel like the country has forgotten about our involvement in Afghanistan. Even in the realm of foreign policy professionals, it appears that events in our longest war have been overshadowed. While this behavior is relatively common, our foreign policy ADD is concerning. Public interest and media attention are expected to jump from topic to topic in rapid succession. This summer is an excellent example; within a few months, the biggest world story had moved from Ukraine to Iraq to Gaza to Syria to West Africa. Although all of these conflicts continue to have follow-on effects, the media has moved on. The real concern is that our distracted foreign policy process extends to governmental institutions. Instead of real planning for long-term concerns, we fall prey to the tyranny of the present, to the detriment of our global interests. Crises happen and must be dealt with, but when the parade of crises take precedence over larger issues, then we have a problem with our process. 

The war in Afghanistan, while winding down, is still ongoing. Just because the public furor over newly arrived crises is more intense does not mean that discarded foreign policy issues have gone away.