Friday, April 17, 2015

The Non-State Update: April 17, 2015

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. Let’s get started. 

First off from Caleb Weiss at The Long War Journal, a fascinating article on a recently released ISIS video showing their use of drones for reconnaissance. While this isn’t the first time the group has used drones, the sophistication of their operation demonstrates how ISIS is becoming increasingly high-tech. 

Josh Keating at Slate’s The World blog has a short post on the recent Department of Justice release on a homegrown would-be jihadist’s plot. While he likely trained with Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, it appears that the schism between ISIS and al-Qaida matters less for Western recruits. 

Money Jihad relays a piece from the Investigative Project on Terrorism about the potential windfall that Hezbollah will receive now that the framework for an Iran deal is in place. While Iran does provide much of Hezbollah’s funds, I’m skeptical that the easing of sanctions on Iran will result in increased financial flows to to the Lebanese group. Hezbollah has become more financially self-sufficient in recent years, and additionally, Iran has more pressing proxy groups to fund. This fear seems overblown. 

At Foreign Policy, Elias Groll and David Francis have a piece analyzing the recent action to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism after decades. While this is one more step in the growing rapprochement, there are still significant barriers to better relations between the US and Cuba. The move will be critiqued by Senators Rubio and Menendez, but there is little evidence that Cuba continues to support terrorist groups. In fact, they’ve been an integral host in talks between the FARC and Colombia. 

Next, an excellent piece by Eric Lorber and Jacquelyn Schneider at War on the Rocks on the recently announced sanctions program focused on countering cyber-attacks. They outline the rationale behind the new sanctions and how sanctions can be used to deter action. Although sanctions are often politically motivated, the ultimate goal is to change behavior, which is much easier to do prior to an action being taken. 

From John Campbell at Foreign Policy, an optimistic article on Buhari’s chances in Nigeria. While he has a multitude of challenges to overcome, Campbell believes that his military history, commitment to rooting out corruption, and his ethnic and religious background, might be able to make a difference in the fight against Boko Haram. 

Nathaniel Janowitz and Benjamin Fernandez report on the recent comments by the CEO of a Canandian mining company with operations in Mexico. The CEO stated that his company has a “good relationship” with the cartels in Mexico, although he later walked back this statement. It is unsurprising that the mining company would have some sort of deal with the cartel in order to prevent theft and kidnappings. It is nearly impossible to guarantee the security of mine workers in these conditions. 

Finally, an admittedly humorous article at first glance from OCCRP, as counterfeit Viagra is not generally seen as terribly threatening. When it is made out of acid, brick dust, and road paint, though, is different entirely. It is surprising that this group was able to operate for seven years without detection. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 


For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin

Friday, April 10, 2015

The Non-State Update: April 10, 2015

After a two month hiatus, we’re back! Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 
Leading off, a great piece from Michael Lohmuller at Insight Crime on one of D&TB’s favorite narco-groups. The Urabenos have lost many of their leaders in the past year either to death or capture, but the arrest of members from non-Colombian countries demonstrates the drug trafficking organization’s increasing multinational structure. It remains to be seen if the Urabenos can transform from a banda criminala into a more regionally-based organization. 

Next up from Political Violence at a Glance, a great post by Thomas Eilers on the false argument that Yemen is a product of proxy wars controlled by regional powers. Although the narrative of Saudi against Iranian influence is convenient, the conflict is more accurately based in local grievances and an unlikely alliance between the Houthis and former President Saleh. 

At War on the Rocks, Todd Greentree has an interesting historical comparison between Russia’s current actions in Ukraine and America’s in Nicaragua in the 1980s. In both cases, a superpower used a proxy war as a low-cost alternative to greater provocations. Greentree concludes by noting that hybrid warfare is not blatantly evil just because Putin is using it. It is simply a type of warfare available to states. 

At OCCRP, news of a massive seizure of heroin at the Croatian-Serbian border. The smugglers were arrested in a German-plated car, likely intending to bring the heroin to lucrative Western European markets. The Balkans remain one of the key global transit points for narcotics trafficking. 

David Francis at Foreign Policy has a fascinating article on the multiple Americans arrested while working to fight for ISIS on American soil. While the US has not suffered an attack from any of these local jihadists, there is certainly the potential for such an attack. Francis argues that ISIS provides these individuals with the aspiration of a higher calling, sometimes pushing them to action from abroad. 

From Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal, a post on the recent revival of Ansar al Sharia Libya’s social media accounts. Although a senior level official has defected to ISIS, it appears that Ansar al Sharia has not yet made that decision as a whole. While social media sites have tried to block groups like Ansar al Sharia, these accounts can be useful in tracking their actions. The balance between banning propaganda and gathering intelligence is a fine one. 

Bronwyn Burton has a piece at Foreign Policy on the aftermath of the recent horrifying attack on a Kenyan university by al-Shabaab. Burton notes that the attack appears to have emulated Boko Haram in style and tactics. What is most concerning is the apparent struggle between militant groups to outdo the others in wanton violence. 

Finally, a podcast episode from the Loopcast from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon discusses the propaganda and messaging strategies of ISIS and al-Qaeda with J.M. Berger. Like always, this is a great talk and definitely worth a listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 


For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

The Return of D&TB

After nearly two months of an unexpected hiatus, D&TB is back! In addition to the usual Non-State Update posts on Friday and original articles throughout the week, I hope to bring in some new authors and new kinds of content to the site. I’m excited to be back and I’m ready to start working again on the ever exciting topics of drug trafficking, transnational organized crime, terrorism, and insurgency. If the previous two months are any indication, there's going to be plenty to discuss going forward. 

Like always, feel free to add your comments, thoughts, concerns, or criticism either in the comment area below, by emailing me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or by getting in touch with me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

Thanks for reading, everyone.