The Non-State Update: April 10, 2015

After a two month hiatus, we’re back! Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Do the Urabenos Have a Future Outside Colombia?: 

Leading off, a great piece from Michael Lohmuller at Insight Crime on one of D&TB’s favorite narco-groups. The Urabenos have lost many of their leaders in the past year either to death or capture, but the arrest of members from non-Colombian countries demonstrates the drug trafficking organization’s increasing multinational structure. It remains to be seen if the Urabenos can transform from a banda criminala into a more regionally-based organization. 

Notes on the Conflict in Yemen: Local vs. Transnational Roots of Violence: 

Next up from Political Violence at a Glance, a great post by Thomas Eilers on the false argument that Yemen is a product of proxy wars controlled by regional powers. Although the narrative of Saudi against Iranian influence is convenient, the conflict is more accurately based in local grievances and an unlikely alliance between the Houthis and former President Saleh. 

America Did Hybrid Warfare Too: 

At War on the Rocks, Todd Greentree has an interesting historical comparison between Russia’s current actions in Ukraine and America’s in Nicaragua in the 1980s. In both cases, a superpower used a proxy war as a low-cost alternative to greater provocations. Greentree concludes by noting that hybrid warfare is not blatantly evil just because Putin is using it. It is simply a type of warfare available to states. 

Croatia: Record Heroin Seizure at Serbia Border: 

At OCCRP, news of a massive seizure of heroin at the Croatian-Serbian border. The smugglers were arrested in a German-plated car, likely intending to bring the heroin to lucrative Western European markets. The Balkans remain one of the key global transit points for narcotics trafficking. 

Portrait of an American Jihadist: 

David Francis at Foreign Policy has a fascinating article on the multiple Americans arrested while working to fight for ISIS on American soil. While the US has not suffered an attack from any of these local jihadists, there is certainly the potential for such an attack. Francis argues that ISIS provides these individuals with the aspiration of a higher calling, sometimes pushing them to action from abroad. 

Ansar al Sharia Libya Relaunches Social Media Sites:

From Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal, a post on the recent revival of Ansar al Sharia Libya’s social media accounts. Although a senior level official has defected to ISIS, it appears that Ansar al Sharia has not yet made that decision as a whole. While social media sites have tried to block groups like Ansar al Sharia, these accounts can be useful in tracking their actions. The balance between banning propaganda and gathering intelligence is a fine one. 

Al-Shabaab Crosses the Rubicon: 

Bronwyn Burton has a piece at Foreign Policy on the aftermath of the recent horrifying attack on a Kenyan university by al-Shabaab. Burton notes that the attack appears to have emulated Boko Haram in style and tactics. What is most concerning is the apparent struggle between militant groups to outdo the others in wanton violence. 

Is ISIS’s Messaging More on Point Than al-Qaeda’s for Potential Recruits?: 

Finally, a podcast episode from the Loopcast from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon discusses the propaganda and messaging strategies of ISIS and al-Qaeda with J.M. Berger. Like always, this is a great talk and definitely worth a listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.