Over this year of continued upheaval across the world, it has been difficult to find a truly hopeful story in the usual Drugs and Thugs fields. But the Colombian peace process with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) might be one of the few positive events from 2014. There are still a multitude of ways that peace might not come to fruition, but something unique in the forty-year conflict is happening right now in Colombia.
Just a few months ago, the peace talks appeared to be in serious jeopardy. In mid-November, the FARC captured Colombian General Alzate, which led to a pause in negotiations at the neutral site of Havana, Cuba. The FARC had released their hostages at the beginning of the negotiation process, which made Alzate’s capture all the more surprising. But once it became clear that the Colombian government would not continue peace talks until Alzate’s release, the FARC promptly returned the general just two weeks after his capture. This pattern of aggressive action, followed by a show of good faith appears to be a FARC standard. Earlier this month, the FARC attacked a Colombian army patrol, killing five and capturing one. Immediately after the attack, the organization announced a unilateral and indefinite ceasefire. The Colombian government refused to accept the terms of their ceasefire, but appreciated the gesture as a show of the FARC’s intent. The FARC traditionally has announced Christmas ceasefires, but the fact that this one is indefinite is certainly encouraging, despite the attack preceding the truce.
Just yesterday, the FARC released the prisoner taken in the attack last week, calling it “another gesture of peace.” Additionally, the FARC announced that they hope to reach a peace deal in the coming year. While these shows of good faith appear to be genuine, it is questionable that they continue to take prisoners and attack military patrols. There are two likely explanations. Either the organization is trying to maintain leverage in the negotiation process, or there are factions in the FARC that are trying to spoil the talks. Although both are common in negotiations with terrorist or insurgent groups, the second explanation is much more concerning. The FARC is broken up into geographical blocks and fronts, all in a hierarchical command structure. But according to InSight Crime, “the geography and size of Colombia has made it nearly impossible for the central command, known as the Secretariat, to exercise control over the whole organization.” Many of these fronts have deep ties in narcotics trafficking, which has been one of the most controversial issues in the peace negotiations. If a rogue front wanted to maintain the status quo, a spoiler attack would be an obvious route to take. Although the FARC negotiators are speaking for the entire organization in Havana, breakaway factions could have negative implications for peace in Colombia. For the moment, this concern is entirely speculative, but it could explain the pattern of FARC actions in the previous two months.
Assuming a peace deal is reached in 2015, the decentralized nature of the FARC will continue to be concerning for Colombian security forces. Much like the FARC’s former right-wing paramilitary foe, the AUC (United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia), FARC fronts could claim demobilization, but then continue with their drug trafficking operations. The AUC demobilization resulted in the rise of the Bacrim (short for criminal band) organizations, most notably Los Urabenos. If some FARC fronts follow the same path, the political insurgency could end, only to be replaced by a multiplicity of drug trafficking criminal organizations. Colombia would likely take this bargain, as ending the decades-long insurgency is their overarching goal. But the mistakes made with AUC demobilization must be avoided in a potential peace agreement with the FARC.
There are still many hurdles in the way of the Colombian negotiations and demobilization, but recent actions by the FARC are certainly positive. In light of this turbulent year in the field of international security, some good news is a welcome development. Here’s hoping for peace in Colombia in 2015.
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