Ukraine and Insurgency

In what has been a year marked by global conflict and upheaval, this week was arguably the most devastating, surprising, and appalling yet. In a span of seven days, the news cycle moved rapidly from the horrifying Malaysian Airlines flight downing, to the continued violence between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, to the battle between ISIS and Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Syria. When ISIS action in Iraq falls to 4th in international news, it’s one hell of a week. 

Seven days ago today, MH17 was shot down, likely by pro-Russian insurgents in Eastern Ukraine, armed with a Russian-provided missile launcher. All 298 individuals on the plane were killed. I don’t intend to wade too deeply into the great power politics or diplomatic debates that have engulfed this past week on Russia’s complicity, as more than enough ink, digital and literal, has been spilt on the subject. The attack of the Malaysian plane full of civilians was horrific, without question. In the past 24 hours though, two more Ukrainian fighter jets were shot down by the pro-Russian separatists. Ukraine’s offensive against the Donetsk-based insurgents explains much of this anti-air barrage over the past week, but this news is shocking. The insurgents have created a virtual no-fly zone over Donetsk. This simple fact alone makes the Ukrainian conflict increasingly more concerning, when looked through an international security lens, than anything else in the news this week. A state-supported insurgency is going toe to toe with a state military, with dramatic implications for Eastern Europe. We have not seen this level of violence on the European continent since the Yugoslav breakup in the 1990s, and additionally, it doesn’t appear likely to end soon. Ukrainian forces are advancing, but Donetsk is a large, industrial city. Such a style of fighting lends itself more obviously to the urban insurgents than to the Ukrainian military. As long as the Donetsk insurgents retain Russian support, this will continue to be a struggle for the nascent Ukrainian government. A capable insurgency, one with the ability to pick planes out of the sky, threatens the security of all nations. 

Moving forward, it is unclear what the US and the EU should do, if anything, to deter Russia from supporting the Donetsk insurgents. The US had just released new sanctions on Russia immediately prior to the Malaysian flight downing. The EU had already been moving towards implementing new sanctions of their own. Additional industrial sectoral sanctions could inflict more economic pain on Russia, but it’s unclear if this will induce Putin to end his support for the insurgents. His popularity is now exceedingly high, no doubt due to the Crimean annexation and the nationalistic Russian rhetoric of 2014. Even if it does limit Russian involvement in Ukraine, it remains to be seen how strongly Putin can direct the insurgents. War is an uncontrollable thing; once set in motion, it is impossible for an instigator to guarantee how it will play out. Over eight months on from the beginning of the Maidan protests, it remains unclear what will happen in Ukraine. 

In a week fraught with violence, terrorism, and insurgency, the news coming out of Ukraine remains more frightening and shocking than anything else. What happens next is anybody’s guess.