The Non-State Update: February 13, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Afghan Taliban Now Smuggle Drugs and Gems Like Mafia: U.N. Report: 

Leading off, an article from Frank Daniel at Reuters on the recent United Nations report on Afghanistan’s criminal insurgency. Broadened funding streams have allowed the Taliban to continue, despite efforts from ISAF and Afghan security forces. Taliban criminal activities now include ruby smuggling, heroin production, and kidnapping for ransom. 

Suspected ISIS Recruiter’s Trial Starts: 

At OCCRP, news that Husein Bosnic, a Bosnian alleged to have been paid money to recruit individuals for ISIS, has begun his trial. Bosnic’s defense is that he simply was preaching his faith, which might find backing in the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The Best- And (Likely) Worst-Case Scenarios for Ukraine’s Peace Deal: 

At Slate, Joshua Keating breaks down the peace deal arranged yesterday after lengthy negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany in Belarus. The deal looks strikingly like the peace deal from 2014, which broke apart nearly immediately. Hopefully it will result in less violence, but the conflict’s roots have not yet been addressed. 

AQAP Seizes Yemeni Military Base in Shabwa: 

Next, Bill Roggio and Oren Adaki at the Long War Journal with news on the AQAP attack in Yemen yesterday morning. The chaos caused by the Houthis is now being used by AQAP to strike seize territory and military posts. This conflict does not appear to have reached a low point as of yet. Yemen is likely to continue to deteriorate in the coming months. 

How Many Fighters Does the Islamic State Really Have?: 

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at War on the Rocks analyzes the multitude of estimations out there on ISIS strength and comes to the sobering conclusion that “its total force is likely to be closer to 100,000 than to 30,000”. While it’s nearly impossible to tackle this question definitively, Gartenstein-Ross’s methodology is excellent. 

Mexican Poppy Production Feeds Growing US Heroin Demand: 

Kyra Gurney at InSight Crime has two pieces this week (the second being “Tracing Heroin Trafficking in New Mexico”) that cover the production and trafficking of heroin from Mexico to the US. While cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking has dropped off, heroin has surged in recent years. 

Is China Making Its Own Terrorism Problem Worse?: 

At Foreign Policy, Justine Drennan outlines the potential backlash that could result from China’s crackdown on its Muslim minority, the Uighurs. Drennan points out that while there are some cases of Uighurs utilizing terrorism as a tactic, China’s repressive tactics may be only adding fuel to the fire in Xinjiang. 

Foreign Recruits are Islamic State’s Cannon Fodder: 

At BloombergView, Eli Lake describes ISIS’s typical use of new foreign recruits as frontline fighters and suicide bombers. While this is ostensibly done for counterintelligence purposes, it will likely result in less enthusiastic volunteers. Foreign fighters probably don’t want to die immediately after joining their new caliphate.  

Big Weed: 

Finally, a great episode of the Planet Money podcast with Steven Henn and David Kestenbaum, detailing the difficulties that legal marijuana shops have in obtaining banking services. While this is slowly changing, banks still have concerns providing their services to such potential risky businesses. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.