The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

The Non-State Update: November 21, 2014

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best news and analysis articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Does the World Have a Terrorism Problem or an Insurgency Problem?: First off, a post from Slate’s The World blog by Josh Keating on the release of the yearly Global Terrorism Index. Although the results show increased deaths due to terrorism, many of the combatants are, in actuality, insurgencies. It’s a fine line distinguishing the two, but it matters. 

Boko Haram Gun-Running in Cameroon: At Money Jihad, a short news post on the Nigerian group Boko Haram’s involvement in arms trafficking in northern Cameroon. The potential internationalization of the group is a serious threat to African security. 

Colombian Peace Process Suspended: Action of Rogue FARC Unit?: Jeremy McDermott at InSight Crime with news of a suspension in the Colombian-FARC peace talks, due to the kidnapping of a Colombian general. If the talks do recommence, this kind of spoiler violence will continue to be a hurdle to overcome. The decentralized nature of FARC makes this even more likely. 

Local Ceasefires in Syria: What are the Prospects?: At the Political Violence @ a Glance blog, Oliver Kaplan has a take on the potential for local peace deals in Syria. Although these have been seen in other conflicts, Kaplan isn’t terribly optimistic on their chances in Syria. 

Seven Black Swans of the Iraq/Syria Conflict: From Aki Peritz at Overt Action, a list of seven unlikely but potential events that could have a huge impact on the conflict. Improbable outcomes are still possible, no matter how unlikely. This is a really interesting thought experiment. 

Major Taliban Offensive in Western Afghanistan: Caleb Weiss at The Line of Steel blog has a post on a recent Taliban attack near Farah with around 400 fighters. Increased Taliban action was expected as the ISAF troops withdrew, but the group has been surprisingly active in recent months. 

US Military Continues to Claim al Qaeda is ‘Restricted’ to ‘Isolated Areas of Northeastern Afghanistan’: Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal disputes a report from the Department of Defense that al-Qaeda’s actions in Afghanistan are limited geographically. ISAF actions in Afghanistan may have limited the potential for terrorist attacks abroad, but Roggio argues that al-Qaeda has been active in a much larger portion of the country than the DoD report shows. 

Italy: ‘Ndrangheta Initiation Ritual Exposed: At OCCRP, a report on the arrest of 40 ‘Ndrangheta criminals because of an undercover video of the gang’s initiation. The video is linked on the article and it’s fascinating. It’s rare to see such a secretive organization up close like this. 

Putting the Islamic State Over a Barrel: A Foreign Policy report by Keith Johnson on ISIS’s oil finances and the best ways to stop the flow. Although Treasury sanctions can be useful, direct military action is the most effective to disrupt ISIS oil money. Additionally, regional cooperation on the truck routes can diminish the link between ISIS-occupied oil fields and consumers. 

A Ticket to Turkey and a Desire to Fight: Why Some Foreign Fighters Travel to Syria: Chelsea Daymon has an article at Small Wars Journal on what motivates the numerous foreign fighters to travel to the war zone in Syria. Daymon looks at examples from the Netherlands, America, Canada, and the UK to demonstrate why these individuals choose to fight abroad. 

The Counterinsurgency Paradigm Shift: Finally, a piece from Justin Lynch at War on the Rocks arguing for the continuation of counterinsurgency readiness and knowledge in the US military. The wars we will fight in the future will look more like Iraq in 2006 than  the Cold War image of Russian tanks at the Fulda Gap. We need to maintain our proficiency in the dirty wars because will are likely to continue to fight them. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

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