The Non-State Update: April 17, 2015

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. Let’s get started. 

Islamic State Uses Drones to Coordinate Fighting in Baiji:

First off from Caleb Weiss at The Long War Journal, a fascinating article on a recently released ISIS video showing their use of drones for reconnaissance. While this isn’t the first time the group has used drones, the sophistication of their operation demonstrates how ISIS is becoming increasingly high-tech. 

ISIS or al-Qaida? An Indictment in Ohio Reveals How Wannabe Jihadists Choose Sides: 

Josh Keating at Slate’s The World blog has a short post on the recent Department of Justice release on a homegrown would-be jihadist’s plot. While he likely trained with Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, it appears that the schism between ISIS and al-Qaida matters less for Western recruits. 

Hezbollah Expects Payday from Iran Deal: 

Money Jihad relays a piece from the Investigative Project on Terrorism about the potential windfall that Hezbollah will receive now that the framework for an Iran deal is in place. While Iran does provide much of Hezbollah’s funds, I’m skeptical that the easing of sanctions on Iran will result in increased financial flows to to the Lebanese group. Hezbollah has become more financially self-sufficient in recent years, and additionally, Iran has more pressing proxy groups to fund. This fear seems overblown. 

US to Remove Cuba From List of State Terrorism Sponsors: 

At Foreign Policy, Elias Groll and David Francis have a piece analyzing the recent action to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism after decades. While this is one more step in the growing rapprochement, there are still significant barriers to better relations between the US and Cuba. The move will be critiqued by Senators Rubio and Menendez, but there is little evidence that Cuba continues to support terrorist groups. In fact, they’ve been an integral host in talks between the FARC and Colombia. 

Sanctioning to Deter: Implications for Cyberspace, Russia, and Beyond: 

Next, an excellent piece by Eric Lorber and Jacquelyn Schneider at War on the Rocks on the recently announced sanctions program focused on countering cyber-attacks. They outline the rationale behind the new sanctions and how sanctions can be used to deter action. Although sanctions are often politically motivated, the ultimate goal is to change behavior, which is much easier to do prior to an action being taken. 

Buhari is the Man to Defeat Boko Haram: 

From John Campbell at Foreign Policy, an optimistic article on Buhari’s chances in Nigeria. While he has a multitude of challenges to overcome, Campbell believes that his military history, commitment to rooting out corruption, and his ethnic and religious background, might be able to make a difference in the fight against Boko Haram. 

Mexican Workers at Canadian Mines are at Constant Threat of Cartel Kidnappings, Killings:

Nathaniel Janowitz and Benjamin Fernandez report on the recent comments by the CEO of a Canandian mining company with operations in Mexico. The CEO stated that his company has a “good relationship” with the cartels in Mexico, although he later walked back this statement. It is unsurprising that the mining company would have some sort of deal with the cartel in order to prevent theft and kidnappings. It is nearly impossible to guarantee the security of mine workers in these conditions. 

Criminal Gang Jailed £10 Million Fake Viagra Scheme: 

Finally, an admittedly humorous article at first glance from OCCRP, as counterfeit Viagra is not generally seen as terribly threatening. When it is made out of acid, brick dust, and road paint, though, is different entirely. It is surprising that this group was able to operate for seven years without detection. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: April 10, 2015

After a two month hiatus, we’re back! Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Do the Urabenos Have a Future Outside Colombia?: 

Leading off, a great piece from Michael Lohmuller at Insight Crime on one of D&TB’s favorite narco-groups. The Urabenos have lost many of their leaders in the past year either to death or capture, but the arrest of members from non-Colombian countries demonstrates the drug trafficking organization’s increasing multinational structure. It remains to be seen if the Urabenos can transform from a banda criminala into a more regionally-based organization. 

Notes on the Conflict in Yemen: Local vs. Transnational Roots of Violence: 

Next up from Political Violence at a Glance, a great post by Thomas Eilers on the false argument that Yemen is a product of proxy wars controlled by regional powers. Although the narrative of Saudi against Iranian influence is convenient, the conflict is more accurately based in local grievances and an unlikely alliance between the Houthis and former President Saleh. 

America Did Hybrid Warfare Too: 

At War on the Rocks, Todd Greentree has an interesting historical comparison between Russia’s current actions in Ukraine and America’s in Nicaragua in the 1980s. In both cases, a superpower used a proxy war as a low-cost alternative to greater provocations. Greentree concludes by noting that hybrid warfare is not blatantly evil just because Putin is using it. It is simply a type of warfare available to states. 

Croatia: Record Heroin Seizure at Serbia Border: 

At OCCRP, news of a massive seizure of heroin at the Croatian-Serbian border. The smugglers were arrested in a German-plated car, likely intending to bring the heroin to lucrative Western European markets. The Balkans remain one of the key global transit points for narcotics trafficking. 

Portrait of an American Jihadist: 

David Francis at Foreign Policy has a fascinating article on the multiple Americans arrested while working to fight for ISIS on American soil. While the US has not suffered an attack from any of these local jihadists, there is certainly the potential for such an attack. Francis argues that ISIS provides these individuals with the aspiration of a higher calling, sometimes pushing them to action from abroad. 

Ansar al Sharia Libya Relaunches Social Media Sites:

From Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal, a post on the recent revival of Ansar al Sharia Libya’s social media accounts. Although a senior level official has defected to ISIS, it appears that Ansar al Sharia has not yet made that decision as a whole. While social media sites have tried to block groups like Ansar al Sharia, these accounts can be useful in tracking their actions. The balance between banning propaganda and gathering intelligence is a fine one. 

Al-Shabaab Crosses the Rubicon: 

Bronwyn Burton has a piece at Foreign Policy on the aftermath of the recent horrifying attack on a Kenyan university by al-Shabaab. Burton notes that the attack appears to have emulated Boko Haram in style and tactics. What is most concerning is the apparent struggle between militant groups to outdo the others in wanton violence. 

Is ISIS’s Messaging More on Point Than al-Qaeda’s for Potential Recruits?: 

Finally, a podcast episode from the Loopcast from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon discusses the propaganda and messaging strategies of ISIS and al-Qaeda with J.M. Berger. Like always, this is a great talk and definitely worth a listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Return of D&TB

After nearly two months of an unexpected hiatus, D&TB is back! In addition to the usual Non-State Update posts on Friday and original articles throughout the week, I hope to bring in some new authors and new kinds of content to the site. I’m excited to be back and I’m ready to start working again on the ever exciting topics of drug trafficking, transnational organized crime, terrorism, and insurgency. If the previous two months are any indication, there's going to be plenty to discuss going forward. 

Like always, feel free to add your comments, thoughts, concerns, or criticism either in the comment area below, by emailing me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or by getting in touch with me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

Thanks for reading, everyone.

The Non-State Update: February 13, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Afghan Taliban Now Smuggle Drugs and Gems Like Mafia: U.N. Report: 

Leading off, an article from Frank Daniel at Reuters on the recent United Nations report on Afghanistan’s criminal insurgency. Broadened funding streams have allowed the Taliban to continue, despite efforts from ISAF and Afghan security forces. Taliban criminal activities now include ruby smuggling, heroin production, and kidnapping for ransom. 

Suspected ISIS Recruiter’s Trial Starts: 

At OCCRP, news that Husein Bosnic, a Bosnian alleged to have been paid money to recruit individuals for ISIS, has begun his trial. Bosnic’s defense is that he simply was preaching his faith, which might find backing in the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The Best- And (Likely) Worst-Case Scenarios for Ukraine’s Peace Deal: 

At Slate, Joshua Keating breaks down the peace deal arranged yesterday after lengthy negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany in Belarus. The deal looks strikingly like the peace deal from 2014, which broke apart nearly immediately. Hopefully it will result in less violence, but the conflict’s roots have not yet been addressed. 

AQAP Seizes Yemeni Military Base in Shabwa: 

Next, Bill Roggio and Oren Adaki at the Long War Journal with news on the AQAP attack in Yemen yesterday morning. The chaos caused by the Houthis is now being used by AQAP to strike seize territory and military posts. This conflict does not appear to have reached a low point as of yet. Yemen is likely to continue to deteriorate in the coming months. 

How Many Fighters Does the Islamic State Really Have?: 

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at War on the Rocks analyzes the multitude of estimations out there on ISIS strength and comes to the sobering conclusion that “its total force is likely to be closer to 100,000 than to 30,000”. While it’s nearly impossible to tackle this question definitively, Gartenstein-Ross’s methodology is excellent. 

Mexican Poppy Production Feeds Growing US Heroin Demand: 

Kyra Gurney at InSight Crime has two pieces this week (the second being “Tracing Heroin Trafficking in New Mexico”) that cover the production and trafficking of heroin from Mexico to the US. While cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking has dropped off, heroin has surged in recent years. 

Is China Making Its Own Terrorism Problem Worse?: 

At Foreign Policy, Justine Drennan outlines the potential backlash that could result from China’s crackdown on its Muslim minority, the Uighurs. Drennan points out that while there are some cases of Uighurs utilizing terrorism as a tactic, China’s repressive tactics may be only adding fuel to the fire in Xinjiang. 

Foreign Recruits are Islamic State’s Cannon Fodder: 

At BloombergView, Eli Lake describes ISIS’s typical use of new foreign recruits as frontline fighters and suicide bombers. While this is ostensibly done for counterintelligence purposes, it will likely result in less enthusiastic volunteers. Foreign fighters probably don’t want to die immediately after joining their new caliphate.  

Big Weed: 

Finally, a great episode of the Planet Money podcast with Steven Henn and David Kestenbaum, detailing the difficulties that legal marijuana shops have in obtaining banking services. While this is slowly changing, banks still have concerns providing their services to such potential risky businesses. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: February 6, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and other media from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Jury Takes Less than Four Hours to Convict Ross Ulbricht of Running Silk Road: Leading off, Samuel Oakford at Vice News with the result of the Silk Road trial. Ulbricht aka Dread Pirate Roberts has been convicted, likely to face life in jail. With the overwhelming evidence against Ulbricht, this result is unsurprising. 

 Obama Warns Against Exaggerating the Islamic State Threat: 

Next, Foreign Policy’s Kate Brannen with commentary on a recent Fareed Zakaria interview with President Obama. Obama noted that their lack of governance will ultimately end the organization and urged that we continue to view the situation realistically, as ISIS is not an existential threat to the US. 

DIA Head Warns al Qaeda in Syria May Gain Ground in 2015: 

At the Long War, however, Thomas Jocelyn analyzes the DIA director’s recent congressional testimony in which LTG Stewart warned about the complexity of the current security crises. Stewart notes the stalemated situation in Afghanistan, the current division between ISIS and al-Qaeda, and the current standing of the air campaign against ISIS. 

The “Seal of Muhammad” Flag: 

The Line of Steel blog’s Caleb Weiss posted this explanatory guide earlier this week on the ubiquitous ISIS flag. Weiss notes the historical context of the flag, then analyzes other groups with similar flags. Just because two jihadist groups have the same black flag does not mean that they’re allied. 

The US Takes Aim at Dawood Ibrahim’s Brother: 

Money Jihad has a short piece on the recent Treasury action against D-Company assets and individuals, notably Dawood Ibrahim’s brother Anis Ibrahim. The sanctions are even more notable this week after Anis’s arrest. Despite the international pressure, Dawood effectively lives openly in Pakistan. 

How Iraq Subsidizes the Islamic State: 

Aki Peritz at Overt Action just posted a piece on how Iraqi civil servants continue to work  in ISIS-controlled territory and continue to receive funds from the Iraqi central government. Peritz analyzes why Iraq allows this to continue and how this process diverts funds to ISIS, which especially needs the income while the price of oil remains low. 

Narco-Submarines: 

Published at Ft. Leavenworth and edited by Byron Ramirez and Robert J. Bunker, with support from Small Wars Journal’s El Centro and InSight Crime, a giant pdf covering everything related to the use of submarines by drug cartels. The technology used by the cartels is astounding. 

Bank Crackdowns Threaten Remittances to Somalia:

Jamila Trindle at Foreign Policy with an article on the continued closure of accounts related to remittances and money services to Somalia. The fear of funding terrorist groups like al-Shabaab, and the related fear of non-compliance fines, has led banks to avoid the country at all costs. While the fears are understandable, allowing an entire country to go unbanked is not the appropriate response. 

Colombia Narcos Prefer Trafficking Coca Base, Not Cocaine: 

A surprising development in the Colombian narcotics market, as reported at InSight Crime by Loren Risenfeld and Elyssa Pachico. Colombian cartels are now exporting their product as an unfinished product. This means that their profit is significantly diminished, but it limits their financial exposure if a shipment is interdicted. The article also notes that Colombian cartels are have a difficult time sourcing the precursor chemicals necessary to finalize their product. 

Accused Drug Lord Extradited to Germany: 

A short take at OCCRP on the extradition of Safet Kalic, a Montenegrin drug trafficker with ties to Darko Saric’s organization. There are complications with the Interpol arrest warrant between Montenegro and Germany, but it seems likely that Montenegro will request his extradition. 

Nigeria and Boko Haram: 

Finally, another great podcast episode from the Loopcast, this time on Boko Haram. Chelsea Daymon hosts Hilary Matfess for an in-depth discussion on the insurgency. Like always, it’s a great listen. 

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: January 30, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. Below is a list of some of the best articles, podcasts, and videos from this week. Like always, the topics addressed are the usual Drugs and Thugs issues: terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

How the Houthis Did It:

Leading off this week, an article from Foreign Policy by Laura Kasinof on where last week’s events in Yemen came from. She outlines the gradual buildup and expansion of the Houthi movement over the preceding four years. The fractured political system in Yemen following the Arab Spring of 2011 provided limited resistance against the Houthis, culminating in their takeover of Sanaa and the Presidential palace. 

Boko Haram’s Resiliency Spells Trouble for West Africa: 

At Small Wars Journal, Jeff Moore writes on Boko Haram and Nigeria’s attempt at a COIN-based strategy. Although the Nigerian conflict has received little press coverage, it’s one of the largest and most violent insurgencies in the world, with designs on a larger swathe of territory than just northern Nigeria. Regional partners in west Africa need to cooperate now before Boko Haram spreads further. 

Islamic State Appoints Leaders of ‘Khorasan Province’, Issues Veiled Threat to Afghan Taliban: 

More information on the ISIS-affiliated group in Afghanistan, once part of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), from the Long War Journal. The former TTP group pledged their support to ISIS last week, and now ISIS has used the organization to implicitly threaten the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. 

The Irrelevance of Traditional Warfare?:

At War on the Rocks, LTG David Barno and Dr. Nora Bensahel begin their new column by examining the declining necessity of traditional warfare and the rise of asymmetric conflict. They argue that although the US will continue to need conventional power to deter adversarial states, we need to additionally retool our conception of warfare to include indirect methods like cyber. 

Is this Scandal Proof that Venezuela Has Finally Become a Narco-State?:

Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez has a piece at Foreign Policy that looks at the recent revelations from a defected Venezuelan official. The official confirms long held suspicions that the Venezuelan military ran drug trafficking operation in the country, known as the Soles Cartel for the suns on the higher ranking officers’ uniforms. This development is not terribly surprising (D&TB covered this over the summer here), but it is fascinating to get some confirmation of the military’s involvement in drug trafficking. 

Sinaloa Cartel Informants Receive Reduced Prison Sentence in Chicago:

At InSight Crime, David Gagne has an article on the limited jail sentences of two Sinaloa lieutenants after they divulged a massive amount of information on the Sinaloa Cartel’s operations. The brothers’ knowledge of the organization was enough to lead to the indictment of 62 Sinaloa members, including the boss, Joaqin “Chapo” Guzman. Although they will still serve 14 years in jail for their crimes, their help in was clearly invaluable. 

The World In-Between: Mafia Capitale Blurs the Lines of Organized Crime: 

At the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, Antonio de Bonis has an interesting piece on the recent discovery of a Mafia Capitale, which sought to operate as a middleman between the licit world and the illicit underworld. With strong ties to Italian upper society, the Mafia Capitale controlled much of the white collar crime in Italy. 

The Counterfeiting Missionary and the Fake Pittsburgh Playboy: 

This story is nearly unbelievable. There have been many bizarre links on these Friday posts in the past, but this might be the strangest one of them all. Justin Rohrlich traces counterfeit US currency from a Pittsburgh fraudster to the son of missionaries who counterfeited the bills in Uganda. This story is absolutely fascinating. 

Turkey Foreign Fighters in Ogaden: 

Finally, a new Loopcast episode from earlier this week. Chelsea Daymon talks to OSMahmood and North Caucasus Caucus on Turkish foreign fighters in Ogaden, Somalia during the 1990s. Their discussion sheds some interesting insights into the current foreign fighter situation in Syria and Iraq. Definitely worth a listen this weekend.  

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin. 

The Non-State Update: January 23, 2015

Welcome to this weekend’s Non-State Update. It’s been another busy week following non-state actors, but the weekend is finally here. Below is a list of some of the best articles from this week. Like the rest of Drugs and Thugs Blog, the topics addressed are terrorism, insurgency, transnational criminal organizations, and narcotics trafficking. 

Roberto Saviano: My Life Under Armed Guard: 

First off, from The Guardian and Roberto Saviano, an excellent biographical piece on the author’s infamy among the Camorra, the Neapolitan organized crime group. After publishing Gamorrah and calling out the Camorra’s practices, they threatened his life. He continues to live under guard and among threats. An absolutely brave man, and a great author as well. 

Ex-Gitmo Detainee Leads Contingent of Islamic State Fighters in Afghanistan: 

At the Long War Journal, Thomas Joscelyn with a piece on a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner who returned to the Taliban after his release. When he lost a power struggle in the organization, he switched allegiance to ISIS and brought his followers along. The competition between jihadists groups continues, even in al-Qaeda’s backyard. 

Besting Boko Haram: 

Next, Alice Hunt Friend at War on the Rocks with an article on the political mistakes made by the Nigerian government in combatting Boko Haram and a way forward in fighting the organization. Assuming that Goodluck Jonathan is reelected next month, he will have his work cut out for him in reconciling the northern and southern parts of Nigeria to unite against Boko Haram. 

Can Argentina Find Justice Without Alberto Nisman?: 

At Foreign Policy, Matthew Levitt analyzes the supposed suicide of Special Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who had been investigating Iranian complicity in the 1994 Buenos Aires bombing. He was expect to appear the day after his death to demonstrate new evidence that the Argentinian government was covering up certain details of the case. With his “suicide”, even more questions are left unanswered. 

Kelmendi Pleads Not Guilty as Trial Opens in Prishtina: 

At OCCRP and via Balkans Insight, Una Hajdari reports on the beginning of Naser Kelmendi’s trial in Kosovo. Kelmendi, something of a personal project here at D&TB (here and here), is on trial for murder, narcotics trafficking, and organized crime. Because neighboring states continue to refuse to recognize Kosovo as a sovereign country, though, the trial has many complications to progress through. More on this here at D&TB next week.

Boko Haram Targets India for Drug Dealing Income: 

At Money Jihad, a post on the Nigerian insurgency Boko Haram’s plans to traffic in narcotics in India to support their fight. To this end, Boko Haram has allegedly aligned with D-Company boss Dawood Ibrahim. This seems so incredible as to be unbelievable, but if there’s any truth in this, it would be a stunning development. 

Playing a Double Game in the Fight Against AQAP: 

At Foreign Policy, Evan Hill and Laura Kasinof with a long read on the Yemeni government’s ties with AQAP. In light of yesterday’s events in Sanaa, this is required reading to understand the dynamics of the country. 

Drone Carrying Three Kilos of Meth Crashes in Tijuana: 

Andrea Noel at Vice News with a bizarre report on a drone crash in Tijuana earlier this week. The drone was downed after it proved unable to handle the 6.5 pounds of methamphetamine attached to it. Concerns about drone-facilitated drug trafficking are not new, but it is surprising to see such a blatant use of the new technology. 

Confusing Revolution with Terrorism:

An interesting piece at Small Wars Journal by Eric C. Anderson on the fallacy of calling ISIS terrorists. Because their movement is so much more than simple terrorism, the label does not make sense. This complicates the problem and eliminates some of our preferred solutions, but it reflects reality more effectively. Anderson’s article also explains some of the points I tried to make a few months back, although in a much more eloquent fashion than my take. 

2000 Illegal Weapons Cross US-Mexico Border Per Day-Report: 

From InSight Crime’s David Gagne, commentary on a recent report put out by the Mexican government’s research wing on the flow of illegal weapons. The American appetite for narcotics creates the market, but our lax gun laws are exacerbating it the war. Drugs go north, guns head south. 

When Money is a Weapon: How the Treasury Got Into the Spy Game: 

And finally at Bloomberg, Terry Atlas and Andrew Mayeda have a great piece on the rise of the Treasury Department’s stature in the national security community, mainly due to its role in drugs and thugs topics. Sanctioning and tracking terrorists, narcotics cartels, and weapons traffickers has become much more in vogue in the security establishment as of late.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the weekend. 

For comments, thoughts, concerns, criticism, or article submissions to D&TB, please comment below, email me at conormlarkin@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @ConorMLarkin.